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Bermuda is like a fine wine, getting better with age, says a top tourism expert.

But he warns the Island is facing threats to its status as a "mature destination'', including increased competition, shorter vacations and more demanding visitors.

Mr. David Mitchell's company in Connecticut represents 400 properties worldwide and operates tours to Europe.

He is quoted in the magazine Caribbean Tourism Today, which features Bermuda on its cover.

The magazine examines problems facing Bermuda, Barbados and the Bahamas, all among the first in the region to embrace tourism, and now "grande dames'' of the industry.

It points out the decline in the islands' business over the last 10 years, due to recession, the Gulf War and turmoil in the airline industry.

Bad promotion, poor value for money, deteriorating service and out-dated hotels have also been blamed for recent problems, it says.

Bermuda's picture is "not rosy'', it says, with arrivals down more than 20 percent between 1983 and 1992.

Mr. Mitchell points out in the article: "It is not unheard of now for Americans to take long weekends and go to Europe.'' Tourists are also demanding more from their vacations, he says.

"The 1980s saw a traveller who was over-ridden by the desire to consume.

"The traveller in the 1990s has to take away with him some added experience or knowledge that is quite apart from the sun, sand, food, and rest that he has historically looked towards.'' Bermuda has changed little in all its years as a prime holiday spot, the magazine says.

"Despite its success, or perhaps because of it, the Island has resisted the trends towards massive development of the hotel sector.'' But there could be difficulties ahead, Mr. Mitchell said.

"I think Bermuda is a very mature product, very carefully aged, and in some ways it is a fine wine -- it gets better with age.

"However, she is not without her individual and unique problems.'' Because Bermuda is so close to its traditional north-east US visitors, and fares are cheaper, the length of their vacations has shrunk.

The Island's ability to attract Europeans, who stay longer, has been affected by the lack of charter flights, he says.

"I think they're going to have to attract more Europeans throughout the year to counteract the short length of stay of US visitors.

"However, Europe is entering a very deep recession and is likely to get in even deeper.

"We might all be chasing something that's not going to be there.'' Mr. Mitchell says Bermuda's "very aggressive'' advertising campaign is hampered by the lack of flights from other parts of America.

The article recalls advice from the second International Island Forum held in Bermuda last May.

Islands should act like businesses, aiming themselves at a precise group of customers, it quotes an industry specialist as saying.

In other tourism industry news, Bermuda enjoyed a huge surge in arrivals for the week ending on Sunday.

Government reported 6,880 visitors coming to the Island, a jump of more than 48 percent over the same week last year.

So far this year, the 37,814 arrivals are 17.3 percent ahead of 1993.

The results were achieved as the Bermuda Hotel Association reported bookings for the upcoming months ahead of last year's pace, when visitor arrivals increased by more than 10 percent overall.

BHA president Mr. Stephen Barker said projected bookings were ahead five percent ahead of March's 46 percent occupancy figure. Projected bookings were slightly higher for April than in 1993.

The 33.8 percent final occupancy figure for February was just off last year's result of 34.5 percent.