holiday to gauge the mood of the voting public.

Time spent in St. George's over the long weekend could prove to be a key ingredient in any call for an early election -- an option his United Bermuda Party has worked to keep open.

Any election call -- it could come as early as next week -- would be based on an array of information pointing to the most advantageous date for the UBP.

Premier Swan will have at his disposal UBP polling results, information on the state of the economy, his understanding of people's feelings about the economy, their general mood as well as knowledge of his party's election preparations and readiness.

Most importantly, he will rely on his basic political instinct, his "gut feel'', as one observer said.

If the information points to calling an election as soon as possible, the Premier is allowed by law to keep the campaign as short as 18 days or as long as three months.

Whatever the decision, it will remain a secret until the last possible moment.

But interviews with party sources in the past week indicated any decision will at least rule out a campaign in August.

A number of factors figure against a snap election call. August should see the usual number of UBP voters off the Island vacationing. In addition, history shows the UBP has not held an election during the hot, muggy month of August since party politics began in the 1960s.

But more than anything else, the Premier may avoid an early call because polling results show Bermuda's first-time voters, ages 18 to 24, are prone to vote against Government.

Figures could not be learned by The Royal Gazette , but it is understood UBP officials are simply not happy with them. Such information should at least see the vote held back until September when many young voters will be away at school. Despite the findings, the party has worked to keep the early option open for the Premier.

The effort to avoid a primary vote in Southampton West is one example.

Continuous canvassing by candidates is another.

In addition, the party is in the midst of compiling film footage for television commercials.

On the other side, the Progressive Labour Party has been watching the situation closely. Some UBP sources believe the PLP has put together a quiet and effective organisation whose only significant fault is that it may be weakened by jumpiness.

Twice in the past year, it has gone to an advanced state of readiness in anticipation of an election call: in November when it cancelled the Party's week-long annual delegates conference after one night, and again in April.

Despite secrecy surrounding the parties' polling information, it is safe to say the numbers so far show them to be close in voter support.

Sen. Alex Scott, a leading PLP campaign strategist, said he had heard talk of an August 24 vote and a mid-September vote.

"Rumours run rife,'' he said. "The Premier is looking for a window of opportunity and he can't find it.

"The numbers are too close. He is bringing the party to readiness but the signal to go is not evident in the polls.

"I think he is finding it difficult to make a decision if it is based on a fait accompli (a clear-cut UBP victory).'' Despite the assertion, the UBP seems to be going into the next election in a reasonably good position.

Polling information shows their MPs and candidates to be generally popular as personalities. Voters have confidence in them to manage the economy and to manage change.

UBP sources say their information shows the PLP to be relatively weaker in those considerations as well as in being a party that is seen as too critical and without clear alternative policies.

One of the main UBP concerns will be how to handle the image of the party itself. Polling information shows it to be down in public opinion, well behind the popularity of its individual representatives.

The Premier can call an election as late as February 9, five years to the day since the 1989 vote.