revenues and increased demands for social assistance.

Analysts are predicting revenues will be down by more than $19 million when the fiscal year ends on March 31.

At the same time, increasing demands for housing and family help and Government-created jobs will add millions of dollars to expenditures.

And if the Island's economy does poorly this winter, a deficit is possible.

But last night, Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul insisted a "balance'' would be maintained in Government's current account, the ledger used to collect and disburse money to maintain day-to-day operations. Latest figures show the social burden on Government coffers increasing dramatically.

Pay-outs for housing and social assistance and job-creation programmes have ballooned to nearly $800,000 a month.

Government Sen. Jerome Dill on Wednesday said a breakdown pegged average monthly payments to help people with rent bills at $258,000. In 1989, housing allowances ran to $42,000 a month.

Sen. Dill also said social assistance payments had grown to $534,000 a month.

In 1987, the monthly bill was $91,000.

The scale of demands on Government is further underlined by the fact that Government's Housing Assistance Programme currently helps 752 people.

Social assistance is helping 855 people.

The breakdown of recipients shows 216 are able-bodied, unemployed people; 240 are underemployed and 177 are disabled. Sen. Dill said there are 222 "others''. In 1989, 205 people were receiving social assistance.

Government's 1992/1993 Budget anticipated a current account surplus of nearly $26 million. A $19 million revenue shortfall would cut that surplus to $7 million.

But the surplus becomes precarious with increased social payouts which could cost Government $6 million more than planned.

Dr. Saul remained confident a balance would be maintained in the Current Account.

"All of our projections indicated we will still end the year with a balance on the Current Account, notwithstanding all the extra help we've been giving to people in financial difficulty,'' he said.

A review of Government's Budget Statement last February does indicate planning for hard times.

Dr. Saul increased social assistance by $1 million to $4.5 million and housing assistance by $750,000 to $3.2 million.

Finance Ministry calculations that produced the estimate of a $19.1 million decline in revenues are based on six-month results to the end of September.

Those revenues, reflecting the recession-slowed economy, have been affected mostly by fall-offs in custom duty receipts.

To counter the losses, Government has ordered its departments to hold the line on spending.

Dr. Saul said the 1990 Budget, which raised taxes significantly, had put the Island into a position to deal with current hard times.

"We've tightened up on Government spending and operations,'' he said. "And with the plan we set in motion in 1990, we will still be able to survive this deep and prolonged recession well. Everyone has pulled together well.

"We're planning for a tough winter, and we'll have the money for people on social assistance. We're in a good position to weather this thing.''