Eugene Cox is on the other side of the fence this morning as he presents the new Government's first ever Budget.

Mr. Cox has maintained that this will be a Progressive Labour Party Budget, although he also admits that much of the groundwork was necessarily laid by the UBP before the November, 1998 General Election.

Nonetheless, this Budget will be judged as a PLP Budget and as such, it is the most significant Parliamentary event to date for the new Government.

It is a major test for the PLP because the most persistent criticism of the party when it was in Opposition was that it was incapable (or worse) of managing the economy or the Government's finances.

The fact that the PLP had candidates in the Election campaign like Mr. Cox, Development and Opportunity Minister Terry Lister and former Government Budget Officer Delaey Robinson was a key factor in the PLP's Election victory because the public came to believe that the PLP had members who were as capable of managing the Country's financial affairs as the UBP.

Ruling out income tax, and virtually any other new taxes, was also an important step in winning public confidence.

But this Budget and the ensuing debate will distinguish between campaign potential and political reality and it is important for the Government to be able to show that it can safely manage the economy and deliver on its promises.

Mr. Cox has already said some of the PLP's pledges will be carried out in this first Budget, but has wisely avoided trying to do everything at once.

This is important, because business confidence is very fickle and the perception of radical change or major spending plans could spell disaster for the economy.

Against that, the PLP is counting on the public to be patient in waiting for the "new Bermuda'' it voted for. That patience will probably be there in 1999, but the voters will not be as forbearing later on.

From what Mr. Cox indicated in yesterday's paper, today's Budget is likely to be a good one with few surprises.

Mr. Cox has indicated there will be few tax increases -- good news when the economy is struggling to compete with more cost-effective countries -- while some additional money will be spent on pressing social issues such as housing and public safety.

If there is one flaw in the Government's strategy, it is its apparent certainty that it can raise more revenue by more efficient and effective collection of existing taxes. This seems to be based on past Auditor's Reports: whether it has any real chance of succeeding remains to be seen; it is hard to force people who cannot, or will not, pay their taxes to do so, and forcing payment of relatively small individual amounts may end up costing more than the revenue collected.

But apart from that, and based on Mr. Cox's statements to date this looks like a Budget which, while it may not please everyone, will not upset too many people and should keep the Country and the Government on a solid footing.