Want to predict if 2007 is going to be a bad one for hurricanes? You might as well toss a coin.

It probably wasn’t the message staff of Validus Re and invited guests were hoping for as they listened to Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a leading voice in the science of hurricane prediction, but the Massachusetts-based professor of atmospheric science delivered an enlightening presentation on the very latest findings in hurricane analysis.

A one-year prediction may not be realistic, but when it comes to the longer term view the ability to predict becomes more viable.

Some of the information Dr. Emanuel brought was so new — only arriving in the past two weeks — even he was still working out what it all meant.

Dr. Emanuel is the author of “Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes”. Last year, Time magazine recognized him as one of the world’s 100 most influential people.

As he spoke at a cocktail reception to mark Validus Re’s first year in Bermuda, Dr. Emanuel showed scientific simulations of what kind of hurricanes are likely to be around in 200 years’ time.

Using a “middle of the road” scenario as far as global temperature rises are concerned the simulations predict North Atlantic storms between 25 and 60 percent stronger than at present, and of those that would actually strike land they would be between 20 and 75 percent more power.

The “Holy Grail” for the insurance and reinsurance sector is being able to see what is going to happen in the immediate short term, like the next 12 months. Dr. Emanuel said that was practically impossible.

However, there are some indicators that might help such short-term risk modellers. One is the arrival of the El Nino weather system off the west coast of South America. When present it suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, as happened in 2006. However, the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon is itself unpredictable and is often late to appear.

Another short-term indicator is volcanic activity. A spell of volcanic activity throws enough dust into the atmosphere to create a global cooling effect that suppresses sea temperatures and therefore reduces the likelihood of hurricanes.

But before the risk assessors in the room became too excited Dr. Emanuel added an important caveat.

“Hurricane Andrew turned up in a post-volcano year,” he pointed out, referring to the category five storm, which was the second most destructive in US history when it hit the southern States in 1992. The year before volcano Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines had blown its top, the second biggest eruption of the 20th century.

“It was a quiet year for hurricanes in 1992 because it was a post-volcano year but then again Andrew turned up. So that just shows that you can be clobbered even in a ‘quiet year’,” said Dr. Emanuel.

Dr. Emanuel provided the latest findings of his team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, using physics and science to create predictive models rather than relying on the traditional methods of historical date. Historical data, said the professor, was not extensive enough or accurate enough to rely upon.

He would like to see more data collected on sea water temperature at depths down to 600 feet where hurricanes are forming as such information could present another key component into predicting how powerful a hurricane system is likely to become by working out how much heat — and therefore energy — it can draw upon from the sea immediately below.

While hurricanes appear set to increase in strength according to the latest predictive models they will always be confined within scientific parameters. That is, there will never be a hurricane with 300mph winds as the physics that create the systems will not allow such a storm.

And Dr. Emanuel had another interestingly reassuring piece of news, the hurricanes themselves appear to regulate themselves. As each hurricane is created it churns up the sea to depths of up to 600 feet and in doing so cools the ocean and thereby lessens the likelihood of another hurricane forming soon afterwards.

“These storms regulate the sea temperature so that it does not heat too much,” said the professor, who said that was something not being taken into account by many other hurricane and weather predictive models.