There was a lot of talk in the run-up to the General Election on what role independent or third party candidates might play under the new electoral system.

The theory goes that single seat constituencies put more emphasis on the quality of the individual candidate than the old dual seat constituencies did, when a stronger candidate could drag a weaker one along, or alternatively, one candidate could look after parochial issues while the other was more of a national figure.

Coupled with a certain amount of distaste for the adversarial nature of Westminster system politics, this could create an opening for charismatic and independent-minded candidates to get elected.

Now the theory will be put to the test with yesterday's announcement by former MP Stuart Hayward that he will again run as an Independent.

Several factors act against Independents, who have rarely had much success in other single seat systems.

One is that they tend to get the most support when they are seen as protest candidates, as Mr. Hayward was in 1989 when he won a seat in the old Pembroke West Central. When the election is closer, people tend to vote party, as they did in 1993 when he was last in the polls. And this election could be very close indeed.

Another is the question of what an Independent can achieve in a system that favours two strong parties. Mr. Hayward struggled mightily to make his mark when he was in the House of Assembly and would be the first to admit that he was often frustrated.

Still, there is the tantalising possibility that in a close election, an Independent MP or MPs could end up holding the balance of power with neither party able to maintain a majority without their support.

But it seems more likely that Mr. Hayward will act as a spoiler in the new Pembroke West Central, which is one of the few seats where two incumbents from the last House of Assembly are in a battle for their political futures.

Erwin Adderley and Neletha Butterfield are not political neophytes and have roots in the general area as Mr. Hayward does. Neither are unpopular, often a key for an Independent to win a seat. All of that makes his job harder.

But he could draw enough votes from one of them to put the other over the top. And if the election is close, he could indeed influence the outcome without being elected himself.