Warm waters in the Atlantic have led to meteorologists changing forecasts for this year’s hurricane season, predicting an increasingly busy period.

Colorado State University increased its forecast for the season on Thursday citing record water-surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic.

The institution said that the forecast came with more uncertainty than usual.

The university estimated that a total of 18 named storms would be recorded in the Atlantic this year, with nine reaching hurricane strength.

The forecast is notably higher than its previous forecast, issued on June 1, when it estimated that there would be 15 named storms, with seven reaching hurricane strength.

“While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea-surface temperatures,” the updated forecast said.

“El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.

“They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Tropical Storm Risk increased its forecast for the season on Friday, citing the unusually high water temperatures, along with an early start to the season.

“Although uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August/September 2023, and for moderate El Niño conditions to persist through August/September 2023 and into the autumn.

“These two factors are expected to have opposing influences on the Atlantic hurricane season. However, we anticipate the warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic will partially override the increased vertical wind shear and trade-wind strength normally present during El Niño.

“An additional factor favouring high activity in 2023 than anticipated in late May is the development of two tropical storms in the Atlantic Main Development Region in June, which is exceptional and implies the tropical Atlantic has become favourable for development much earlier than normal.”

The weather company estimated that a total of 17 named storms would be recorded over the course of the season, with eight reaching hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Risk had previously estimated 13 named storms for the Atlantic, with six reaching hurricane strength.

So far, three named storms have been recorded this year — Arlene, Bret and Cindy — but none have developed into hurricanes.