We began issuing this report 33 years ago when, as best we could tell, there was only one organisation — an accounting firm — advancing a similar document. Today there are at least 24 organisations issuing “reports” and “insights”. So as a service to you, we have kept this as succinct as possible.

The report is based on hundreds of discussions and interviews with some of the best-informed, best-connected people in the world. Your life is going to change significantly in the period ahead as a result of the trends cited here. We urge you to prepare for what is coming since the impacts will be significant and long-lasting.

Let’s start with some observations:

• Breaches in citizens’ privacy, claims of meddling in elections and the advent of artificial intelligence have raised a whole new set of fears about the misuse of technology. Concerns about disruptive cyberattacks on US infrastructure and communication networks are real and serious

• Public trust in institutions has faded dramatically

• Whether you like him or not, Donald Trump has changed the United States, including our foreign policy, dramatically. Expect the nastiest presidential election in history

• Congress is sharply divided, even within each party, and it is unlikely we will see positive changes anytime soon

• The US electorate is divided. There are many who want to return to the America of the past. It does not appear there is any person or institution that can bring us together anytime soon

• The Supreme Court is now leaning towards the Right, and less likely to rely on precedent. It also will be thrust into the presidential election in ways that will add to national polarisation and distrust in institutions, no matter how it rules

• The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will change the way we all live in the period ahead

• Western Europe seems to be drifting, with leadership in almost every country under pressure

• Saudi Arabia, using its vast wealth, is more active today than ever before

• In Africa, a continent of remarkable potential, graft and corruption are a way of life in several countries. China is working actively to corner the many natural resources the continent offers

• Iran is overtly engaged in various forms of terrorism, much of it targeted on Israel. The question is: what will the US do about it?

• China is aggressively expanding its influence around the world. Major areas of concern include Taiwan, Africa, India, where border wars have raged off and on for years, Tibet and Mongolia

• Technology is at the root of US tensions with China, with significant trade barriers and proven theft of intellectual property by China further straining relations. Expect Chinese spying to increase in many key US businesses

• Russia: be mindful of the next move beyond Ukraine

• North Korea is engaged in more than posturing and may become much more aggressive

• In South America, political unrest continues to fuel havoc in Venezuela, Peru and other countries

• More than 50 elections will take place around the world in 2024

To be sure, there are many positive things happening:

• Carbon emissions from US power generation are down dramatically

• Advances for women have been made, with more breakthroughs coming

• There continues to be significant job growth in the US with unemployment at a near-record low

• Aids-related deaths are way down

• Cancer-related deaths are down dramatically

This report then, as it has for 33 years, focuses on critical thinking and on how you mayt apply it in your business, or whatever pursuits you follow. Although there are many demands on your time, we urge you to put aside a few moments whenever convenient to read this thoroughly. We are prepared to discuss any of this with you if that is appropriate, and we are grateful for the numerous responses to previous reports.

What is coming

November presidential election: Odds favour a 2024 presidential rematch that very few want. Joe Biden is on track to be the Democratic nominee despite a nominal primary challenge from representative Dean Phillips from Minnesota. Phillips can’t beat Biden, but his campaign reflects discontent within the Democratic Party that will make it more difficult for Biden to hold together his 2020 winning coalition.

Donald Trump, meanwhile, continues to dominate the GOP. While Republican opposition to Trump is more united than it was in 2016, Trump has only grown stronger, despite legal woes that could ultimately land him in jail. Expect both sides to pull out all the stops. Much of it will be harmful for the national mood — and potentially for business. Many readers of this report will be asked by journalists to comment. Don’t do it. People will remember what was said.

We will not speculate on a victor yet, but here are some wild cards to consider. Biden lags Trump in the polling, but that could change as the election draws closer, if Trump’s legal woes worsen and the economy continues to shake off inflation without stumbling. Biden could be dinged by the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry. Trump is making inroads with non-White voters, particularly Latinos, a key factor in states such as Nevada. But the GOP’s recent midterm disappointment suggests that Trump remains toxic for the many White suburban voters who helped to propel Biden in 2020. Third-party candidates threaten to hurt both candidates: Cornel West, an independent, is likely to draw votes from Biden; and Robert F. Kennedy Jr from Trump. Most notably, two men as old as Biden and Trump enduring the strains of a gruelling campaign may develop health issues.

“When I was a boy I was told anybody could become President. I’m beginning to believe it” — Clarence Darrow

Artificial intelligence: the game changer

The latest version of ChatGPT is reportedly ten times more advanced than its predecessor, and so there will be serious debate about what impact AI will have and how it may be regulated. There are many who expect the worst, predicting societal inequalities, mass unemployment and declining standards of living for millions. But AI is with us to stay, changing our lives and our businesses.

India, the world’s most populous country

India’s population is estimated to be 1.43 billion. China’s is 1.41 billion. Demographers project that the Chinese population will fall by 100 million by mid-century. India’s population should reach nearly 1.7 billion by then. Much of the development there is good, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely remain in power for several more years, pushing his Hindu nationalism at the expense of other interests, and so it is an open question whether India will achieve the kind of economic momentum China has enjoyed for more than three decades.

Going to a new frontier

Several countries and private companies are making big bets on space. Seventy-seven countries have space agencies; 16 can launch payloads into space. India has launched a mission to study the sun. China and the US have ambitious moon programmes, with Nasa aiming to return astronauts there by 2025.

The surge in interest and the lack of rules governing space are fuelling concerns that geopolitical rivalries will lead to its militarisation. The US has promoted the Artemis Accords to “govern the civil exploration and use of outer space”, but China and many other countries have declined to sign on. Working out rules for space is complicated by private companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic playing large roles in operations. That raises questions about profit motives and national obligations. There are also questions about whether the seemingly mundane problem of space junk will complicate exploration of the heavens.

The global democratic recession

Optimists were once predicting a wave of global democratic expansion. That prediction is on shaky ground. Freedom House started 2023 by announcing that 2022 marked the seventeenth straight year in which global freedom and democracy declined.

As if to prove the point, Africa’s coup epidemic continued last year. In July, Niger’s military ousted the country’s democratically elected president. Neighbouring states threatened to intervene if the coup was not reversed, but in response the military juntas running Mali and Burkina Faso threatened war, so Niger is still run by the generals. Next, in August Gabon’s military took power, making vague promises to eventually hold elections.

A new progressive party did win the most seats in Thailand’s May elections. However, a backroom deal produced a pro-military government that left the election’s biggest winners on the outside looking in.

India’s government continued to use the law, intimidation and even assassinations — or so it is charged — to silence critics. Many other supposed democracies also restricted freedom of expression. The trend continued of candidates claiming they would lose their election only if the vote was rigged.

In Latin America, Guatemala’s attorney-general tried to keep the country’s president-elect from taking office, while Peru’s attorney-general used corruption investigations to pressure lawmakers to help her allies. Far-right parties continued to gain power across Europe, reviving memories of how European democracies collapsed a century ago, although Poland was a notable exception. Here at home, Donald Trump called his opponents “vermin”, saying that if he regains the White House he will not be a dictator “except for Day 1” and suggesting he would use the presidency to target his political enemies.

All in all, it does not look like a good year for democracy. Keep this uppermost in mind if you operate abroad.

Proliferating weapons

China and Russia are in a race to develop the most technologically advanced weapons, but America still remains the world’s most important supplier of military hardware, accounting for 40 per cent of global arms sales.

China is now No 2 in weapons manufacturing after doubling its military spending over recent years. It expanded its navy by 17 ships in the past 18 months alone, and its military budget is more than $700 billion, not far behind America’s roughly $800 billion in annual defence spending.

The economy

The US economy is likely to remain strong, even though the growth rate may slow in the year ahead. Do not expect a large inflationary bump. The dollar may drop a little against foreign currencies, not a bad thing for US exports. The Fed will not increase its interest rates, more likely decreasing them as the inflation rate approaches its target of 2 per cent. Expect weak growth abroad as inflation continues to plague many countries, especially in Europe.

China: seven trends to watch

The relationship between China and the US will affect what happens around the world. Watch these trends:

1, Clampdown on criticism: China’s security bureaucracy has been told to monitor economic policy discussions, so anyone who gets out of line or makes negative comments is likely to be dealt with harshly

2, Equity markets: The Government has said it will support Chinese firms, but the stock market tells a different story. According to CNBC, on the last trading day of 2023 China’s CSI 300 index was down 11.8 per cent for the year, while the Hang Seng plunged 14 per cent in 2023. By way of comparison, Japan’s Nikkei 225 wrapped up the year with gains of more than 28 per cent, making it Asia’s top-performing market

3, China has instituted new online gaming restrictions, plunging platforms such as Tencent into a loss. Alibaba has effectively no “controlling person”, meaning the Government is in charge of the company. Investors are no longer stakeholders. Expect more of this kind of government interference in markets. Meanwhile, graft will continue to be a way of life with the Chinese

4, FDI: Foreign direct investment in China has fallen to decades-low levels

5, Foreign affairs: President Xi Jinping has issued new instructions to his diplomatic corps — be ready for struggle, be aggressive in defending national interests. He believes in strengthening strategic planning and using China's united front as a kind of weapon

6, Capital flight: Money and people are leaving China. It is estimated that 20 per cent of the migrants who are crossing our southern border are Chinese

7, As 2023 began, US-China tensions seemed to be easing. As late as November, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping had a productive meeting at the G20 summit in Bali, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken was set to visit Beijing in February to discuss “guardrails” for the geopolitical rivalry. But then a Chinese surveillance balloon drifted across the US before being shot down off the coast of South Carolina. Beijing insisted it was just a weather balloon blown off course. But relations have been going south ever since, with the Chinese raising the belligerence of their rhetoric and flexing their military muscles in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. Look for Biden to do what he can to ease tensions in 2024 — but without looking weak or too accommodating to voters

The world population

The estimated world population on January 2 was 8,019,876,189, an increase of 75,162,541 (0.95 per cent) from last year. During 2024, 4.3 births and 2.0 deaths are expected worldwide every second. Populations will grow largely in Third World countries, so expect unrest, conflict and all the other negatives that can come with increasing strains on already underserved social services such as healthcare, education and access to clean water.

The US population

The Census Bureau estimated our population on New Year’s Day at 335,893,238, reflecting an annual increase of 1,759,535 or 0.53 per cent. Future population growth will be affected in yet-to-be-determined ways by increasing numbers of immigrants.

Americans’ expectations for 2024

• America is strong in most important areas, yet 59 per cent of Americans say they are more pessimistic than optimistic about the year ahead

• While Democrats are not of one mind, nearly seven in ten Republicans (69 per cent) and independents (67 per cent) say they are pessimistic about what lies ahead in 2024

• Three in ten Americans (30 per cent) believe their personal finances will worsen, the highest rate in 14 years

• In September, 65 per cent of Gen Z and 74 per cent of millennials said they are starting further behind financially than earlier generations at their age. Seven in ten said they have been set back financially by things out of their control. More than half believe they do not have an equal opportunity to achieve success

• More Americans know their astrology sign than their blood type

• Half of US adults say they are open to signing a prenup, up from 42 per cent last year

• More than six in ten Americans (62 per cent) said they have reduced their news consumption to protect their mental health and wellness. More than half (55 per cent) of Americans say they ignore news about macro-issues they have no control over

• Americans support corporate diversity, equity and inclusion because, they say, everybody wins. Nearly eight in ten (78 per cent) Americans support businesses taking active steps to reflect the diversity of the nation's population.

Here’s to hoping you have a great year in 2024. We would, of course, be pleased to hear any response you may have to this effort.

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there”

— Will Rogers

• Robert Dilenschneider is the founder and principal of the Dilenschneider Group, which provides strategic advice and counsel to Fortune 500 companies, and leading families and individuals around the world