The new year has come, so what do we have to look forward to politically?

Internationally, and possibly locally, it is elections. And many of them, with half the world’s populations going to the polls in 2024. Some elections, such as in Russia, are predetermined, but a gambler should put their money on a wave of centre-right parties storming to victory. There is, after all, a fundamental shift to the right-of-centre globally.

The election on December 10, 2023 of Javier Milei in Argentina is one example of what can happen when the electorate is prepared to take a chance on something radical. His populist politics have been compared to those of Donald Trump, but I think this is a disservice. The Argentine voter turned to his economic radicalism out of pure desperation after years of hyperinflation and economic stagnation.

In Britain, the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has become evermore Blair-like in his quest to attract Tory voters ,even recently praising the “old” Labour-despised Margaret Thatcher. In my conversations with solid Tory voters in Britain, they admit they will vote Labour in the next election. All Sir Keir needs do is sit and watch the Tory party completely self-destruct — it is already 90 per cent there. Sir Keir has an even greater chance of electoral success owing to the imploding Scottish National Party, with the Labour Party the most likely beneficiary.

With that said, and before you say the British Labour Party is a leftist party, I would argue that there is actually no longer any real definitive difference between the disarrayed Tories and a circumstantially resurgent Labour Party. At best they are both centrists, fighting over the vote of the slightly right-of-centre portion of the electorate.

When you take into account the effect created by Nigel Farage, who has been ringing the alarm bells on cross-channel illegal migration for years, the voter to the right of the aforementioned right-of-centre voters — who would have likely voted Tory — will probably turn to Farage’s Reform Party to register their disapproval of the Tories’ poor handling of tens of thousands of the desperate arriving in Dover via illegal boat landings.

In the United States, the story Donald Trump foretold about a Mexican border crisis is manifesting itself every single day. Joe Biden, who can barely find himself out of a wet paper bag, is practically handing the US elections to a dangerous autocrat. Despite all his legal issues, the Left is helping Trump by fighting him in court, rather than on the campaign trail, probably because Biden is so frail and prone to gaffes the Democrats have no other way to fight.

In Canada — whose next election must be held before October 20, 2025 — a weak prime minister is in power only because of the winner-takes-all Westminster system, whereby a popular vote does not necessarily translate to electoral success. A resurgent Conservative Party, playing on the fears of too much multiculturalism of Canada, may very well see the back of Trudeau.

However, in Ireland, traditionally seen as a welcoming jurisdiction, immigration has come front and centre with violence breaking out in the heart of Dublin and refugee centres burnt to the ground. In this instance, the governing coalition of two slightly right-of-centre parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — who are separated only in terms of historical support dating back to independence from Britain rather than policy differences — are bucking the trend and being hammered by the radical Left, namely Sinn Féin. Their primary platform is that there is not enough housing, a message that resonates with hundreds of thousands of under-35s who are too young to remember the Troubles and Sinn Féin’s role, and who can’t get their foot on the housing ladder. This housing problem is exacerbated owing to immigration from Eastern Europe as a result of the Ukraine war. However, the underlying cause of the rise of Sinn Féin is the poor handling of immigration and the refugee crisis.

In Austria and Germany, where Nazism has its roots, there is a real concern that the tide of tolerance towards immigrants will turn instead into a wave of nationalism, which will have wide-reaching effects on European Union institutions and EU foreign policy, particularly towards Russia.

Across Western democracies, immigration remains at the forefront of political debate, but through arguably overly liberal policies the pendulum has swung against that liberalism, and in most instances, it has swung to the Right. So, what is the consistent message in these jurisdictions? It is a not-so-subtle message of nationalism that is winning the day. It works and it works well for both the radical Left and radical Right. Voters typically vote with their emotions rather than looking clearly at the facts. Playing on the emotions of fear is far easier than presenting a cogent and reasonable argument on the pros and cons of immigration both legal and, yes, illegal — or for that matter any policy.

The fact of the matter is that fundamental changes to the fabric of any society cause a considerable and significant pushback. Once a fuse is lit it is hard to put out the resultant fires. Inclusivity may be a wonderful buzz word, but without buy-in, violence, intimidation and insurrections will become the new normal, and history has shown this time and time again.

What needs to happen to avoid the rise of the radical Right or radical Left is a real, honest and factual debate about immigration in all these jurisdictions. However, with nationalist emotions as the ultimate “Trump” card, that will be very difficult. Sound familiar?

Bermuda is a microcosm of all of these jurisdictions. A fear of permanency of migrants continues to be an issue to our detriment. However, we are not “overrun” by refugees, legitimate or illegitimate, and in fact we need more permanent immigrants. Our own nationalist fervour continues to harm our ability to recover economically and socially from the global car crash in 2008 — exacerbated in Bermuda by poor economic planning — with even the Bermuda Football Association recently acknowledging the very serious issues we have in terms of population shrinkage and the effect on the local game.

So, what do we do?

Marc Bean has recently laid down his marker in a recent interview, excerpts of which were published in the newspaper. His message has become one of inclusivity and a recognition that the two existing elected political parties are diametrically opposed, owing to history and mistrust. His answer is the Free Democratic Movement. It is worth considering, if we are to change the dynamics of mistrust, poor policy decisions and nationalist fervour.

This option may shift the debate and help bring about meaningful change because at the moment, we continue a slow, downward trajectory, in part because of a complete failure by the existing political class to engage in meaningful debate.

Perhaps we can buck the global trend and elect a sensible, centrist party that is not bound by the ties of the past. That would be radical for Bermuda.

• Michael Fahy was the Government Senate Leader and Cabinet minister in the One Bermuda Alliance government from 2012 to 2017. Thoughts or comments to opedfahy@gmail.com