What did the Smith’s North by-election tell us? In some ways, it told us what we have already known for 30 years. The result was a snapshot of the voting demographics that have consistently been there, but were never given the proper opportunity to manifest.

Using the most graphic characteristics, let’s use the terms “hardcore Progressive Labour Party”, “hardcore One Bermuda Alliance” and “swing” voters to describe the group in the middle. On that basis, the result of this most recent election is nearly evenly divided at 33 per cent each.

Depending on the electoral district, those percentages will veer towards favouring one party. That phenomenon will be seen all over the island with an equally consistent swing-vote factor. The most likely piece of that equation which is subject to change is the likelihood of a larger swing-vote population.

A recent poll unveiled several persons who voted for their favoured party out of fear that if they did not, the opposite party would get in. They wanted change agents, but were concerned that if they voted for that change, their party’s opponent might be strengthened.

Sir John Swan helped to mitigate that fear, but Smith’s North has more entrenched partisans. The #MeToo factor may alleviate some of those concerns if in a General Election there are more independent candidates aligned. If Sir John is any indicator, the quality of independent candidates would be important.

The OBA achieved a morale boost by retaining the seat, but did not gain a tactical advantage to suggest it is on the eve of a potential victory at the General Election. The PLP — in salvaging what may appear an improved position in a constituency in which it was nearly 300 votes down before reducing the deficit to 25 — could be said to be the net winner. But, equally, that could be because Smith’s North voted not to change.

The philosophy going forward is hinged on whether the electorate is confronted with change or remains the same. In that regard, the OBA is the biggest loser and will inherit such fears. Dissatisfaction is increasing and faith in both parties is decreasing.

Unfortunately, despite a rich appetite for change, there is no appetite for a third party. Sir John, whether he realises it or not, has once again become a hero — this time the hero for change.

The visible support he received from a former PLP Cabinet minister was a strong signal which, if the recipe is best cultivated, could revitalise hope for a paradigm shift in politics. I can foresee a thinking crowd of still vibrant politicians lending intellectual support for a new wave.

Yes, naturally, had Sir John won the by-election, such a campaign might have had a head start.

Smith’s North is a hard nut to crack — the proverbial line in the sand for “my way and your way”. Those who have canvassed the area know those lines in the sand, so what Sir John accomplished was near-miraculous when one understands the extent of what he was working against.

Michael Dunkley would have been better off to have sailed into the sunset with his retirement. Unfortunately for Robert King, a sterling candidate, this victory will be seen as a wedding gift rather than something he has earned.

I had hoped he would voluntarily bow out before May 22 and resurface as an independent. It is still not too late for him to take an independent path and not be sucked into the trajectory of the OBA, as there is nothing left to be added to that old formula.

It is time for something new, and Mr King would be wise if he understood this as a political fact quickly. He cannot re-engineer 60-odd years of Westminster-style government, which has as its genesis a protest movement.

The argument is old, the debate is old; in fact, it has been over. To speak metaphorically, “Behold I saw a new heaven and a new earth” — and that’s what Bermuda is looking for and needs right now.