Disruptive technology a top emerging risk, survey says
Disruptive technology has been identified as a top emerging risk in a survey of risk managers.
The survey, conducted by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries, included input from Bermudian-based risk managers.
The CAS and the SOA recently jointly published a full report of findings from the 17th annual Emerging Risk Survey, conducted last November, along with results from a supplemental midyear flash survey conducted in May.
Online questionnaires asked risk managers to rank current and emerging risks, and researchers tracked those rankings over time.
The organisations said top emerging risks chosen by risk managers in both surveys reflect recent events: deadly heatwaves and other climate events, continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the advent of ChatGPT.
In the November survey, climate change held a dominant place in risk managers’ responses. It ranked first both as an emerging risk and as part of combination risks.
However, responses between the two time periods changed somewhat.
Climate change, as a top emerging risk, fell from No 1 last November to No 4 in May, while disruptive technology moved into the top spot.
The organisations said some of this fluctuation may be the result of recency bias. The fall hurricane season may have affected responses to the November survey, and continued development of generative artificial intelligence might be reflected in the responses to the midyear flash survey.
The five emerging risks cited the most by risk managers were, in November, climate change, war, disruptive technology, demographic shift and cyber/networks. In May, they were disruptive technology, cyber/networks, war, climate change and financial volatility.
The organisations said: “The biggest change from the previous emerging risk surveys is the inclusion of disruptive technology. It didn’t appear in the top five in 2022 but was ranked No 1 by May 2024.
“ChatGPT launched in November 2022, just as the 16th annual Emerging Risk Survey was closing. Since then, generative AI has received a lot of media attention, and there has been much public discussion about its benefits and threats.”
Report author Max Rudolph, of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, said: “Identifying trends helps risk managers anticipate individual risks, analyse threat multipliers and plan for future scenarios.
“The survey responses, especially the comments, provide a vehicle for risk managers to share innovative ways to analyse and manage risk.”
The online survey included 133 participants. Eighty-one per cent of respondents were based in North America, and additional responses came from risk managers in Europe, South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and the Caribbean/Bermuda.
The May flash survey was conducted online and included 164 participants.
• For the full report and key findings, see Related Media
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