Dear Sir,

I listened to reporter Gary Foster Skelton’s recent interview with the Deputy Premier, Walter Roban, which was an attempt at a discussion on the job records of both the One Bermuda Alliance government (2012-2017) and the Progressive Labour Party administration of the past seven years.

Mr Skelton provided the Government’s own job statistics showing historical Bermudian employment data for both administrations — ie, from 2012 to 2022. The data reveals that both administrations’ Bermudian jobs records are almost identical with averages of 70 per cent Bermudian employment.

He quite rightly questioned the validity of the Deputy Premier’s recent claim that the OBA’s historical policymaking was “anti-Bermudian” in the context of the job market. Apparently, when presented with this employment data — and I looked it up — those numbers quickly became a non-talking point for Mr Roban, who then preferred to speak to the unhappy mood of the electorate in 2017, which he said resulted in the PLP being re-elected.

Well, as you all know, I like data. Data cuts through emotion. Data doesn’t care about feelings and it reveals critical truths. So let’s look at some:

Total Filled Jobs History – a snapshot

(source: Bermuda Government Department of Statistics/labour force surveys)

Year Jobs

1998 35,323*

2000 36,878

2008 40,213**

2012 35,443***

2017 33,659****

2022 31,914

*PLP first elected as government

**Highest record jobs level; beginning of global financial crisis

***OBA elected as government

****PLP re-elected as government

Note: In March 2024, the Ministry of Economy and Labour reported that the island has just under 32,000 filled job positions.

(All the above totals show that an average of at least 70 per cent were Bermudian-filled jobs)

Government Financial Assistance Expenditure

Year Expenditure (in millions)

2000 $15.7*

2008 $18.4**

2012 $38.6***

2017 $53.6****

2020 $50.1*****

2022 $52.4

2024-25 $54.1******

(source: Audited Financial Statements of the Consolidated Fund)

*Under first PLP government

**global financial crisis emerging

***OBA becomes government in December

****PLP regains government in July

*****Two-year pandemic begins

******latest estimate from Government Budget blue book

Financial Assistance Categories

For sample year 2022, there were 2,226 persons on FA as follows:

47% Seniors/pensioners

35% On disability

9% Have insufficient income

9% Able-bodied unemployed

(This ratio is a consistent trend over past years, showing that seniors/pensioners and the disabled represent 82 per cent of all those receiving financial assistance.)

Population Statistics (persons normally resident)

2000 62,059

2008 65,462***

2010 64,237

2016 63,826

2022 63,542

(source: Bermuda Government Statistics/Registry General/Census)

*** Larry Burchall did extensive research on jobs/population counts and disputed some government statistics, estimating that in 2008, the population peaked between 67,000 and 68,000

In 2022, the Ministry of Economy and Labour produced a position paper, Addressing the challenges of an ageing population in Bermuda. Here are the highlights of this report:

Bermuda’s working population will be unable to support the local economy in years to come. Key factors are: people ageing and retiring over the coming years, increasing life expectancy and declining birthrates, all of which make it difficult for employers to secure enough qualified Bermudians to fill vacant positions and likely impact the structure of our society and economy. Bermuda’s ageing population will have significant implications on the island’s economic growth and healthcare. It is widely known that economic growth depends largely on a strong middle-class sector and this anticipated decline in Bermuda’s labour force owing to an ageing population and emigration will directly affect Bermuda’s ability to maintain sustainable economic growth in the future. It is projected that in 2026, there will be 44 seniors for every 100 people of working age — the 20‐64 age group — which translates to an old-age dependency ratio of 43.6, higher than the recommended average by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. A lower dependency ratio/number is ideal, as it signifies less of a burden on the existing workforce who are supporting/paying for those who are not working.

The report importantly cited the lack of critical migration data, which limits accurate population analysis. As such, it is essential that comprehensive migration data be collected to supplement the existing birth and death statistics, providing a more complete database.

In summary, Bermuda has the highest level of government financial-assistance expenditure in our history; we are approaching a dangerously high, old-age dependency ratio; the resident population has widely fluctuated; and accurate numbers and trends cannot be tabulated, as migration numbers are not being collected. Over the past two decades, there has been a loss of at least 8,000 jobs, leading to a smaller workforce and (reminder) the people’s debt load is $3.1 billion excluding unfunded/pension liabilities, which when added brings the total financial obligation to about $7.4 billion. Given our existing working population total, that’s about $232,000 per worker.

So that's my “data dump” for this session. I wonder what the mood of the people is? One thing is certain: right now, there are more Bermudians financially — dare I say emotionally — dependent on the Government to survive than ever before in our history. Makes for quite the symbiotic relationship.

BEVERLEY CONNELL

Pembroke