Rumours of an impending General Election refuse to go away. How will the result of the Sandys North by-election today influence if — and when — it will be called?

The timing of the One Bermuda Alliance’s platform release this week could prove to be very prescient — an indicator of what might be on the political horizon.

At least one person spoken to by The Royal Gazette said it was timed to get out in front of a General Election, insisting it would be called soon if the Progressive Labour Party’s share of the vote today held up well.

History suggests the PLP should win in Sandys North. It was close in 2012 when the PLP’s Michael Scott defeated the OBA’s Ray Charlton 399 votes to 391 in a General Election that narrowly handed power to the OBA.

Since then, it has been a safe PLP seat — in 2017 its majority was 280 and in 2020 former Attorney-General Kathy Lynn Simmons, whose resignation sparked the by-election, won by 246 votes for the PLP.

This time, though, it is different — there are four candidates, the Reverend Emily Gail Dill for the PLP, Carl Neblett for the OBA, Marc Bean for the Free Democratic Movement, and independent candidate Cire Bean.

Having so many candidates in one seat is a relatively unusual occurrence in Bermuda, and with tactical voting probably unlikely, it seems certain that the result will be close.

Add in that the PLP is a government in midterm, that there is a resurgent independent movement and that the OBA is getting its act together after a disastrous 2020 General Election campaign and the outcome becomes even less clear.

Then there is the Marc Bean factor.

The former PLP leader and founder of the FDM — seen by some as a libertarian-style party — is someone many see as the person most likely to run the PLP close.

Although soundly beaten when he stood in the same seat in 2020, one observer said he believed the by-election would be a two-way fight between the PLP and Mr Bean and that an FDM win “would not be surprising”.

“I think a good result for the PLP would be to simply win, regardless of the margin. By-elections tend to have lower turnouts, and voters often use them to send a message of protest to incumbent governments.

“Factor in the well-organised campaign in the area around the primary school closures, and I feel there’s a very good chance voters may either lodge a protest vote or vote with their feet and not come out,” he said.

A win for the FDM, however, might not translate into General Election success, the observer said.

“While it would certainly boost their chances in a General Election (especially by giving their leader a platform in parliament), I feel it will be difficult to generalise that result to other FDM candidates.

“Mr Bean is their most prominent and most fluent candidate, something other FDM candidates will find challenging to emulate,” he said.

“So while an FDM victory here would be annoying from a PLP perspective, it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater concerns about the FDM in a General Election scenario.

“It wouldn’t surprise me either that if the FDM wins the by-election, that they’d subsequently lose it in the General Election.”

On another level, he said, the result might be more interesting in terms of seeing how the vote played out for the other candidates.

“How will the OBA do versus John Swan’s [independent] movement and versus the FDM? That may be more informative about any General Election trajectory.

“That’s why I feel the PLP will look more at how the vote splits between the OBA and John Swan’s movement as opposed to the FDM specifically.

“That will give a better indication to the PLP how votes may split in a General Election scenario.

“If the PLP wins convincingly, that may well be interpreted as auspicious by the PLP in terms of General Election planning.

“A reduced margin of victory or a loss, I think, would encourage the PLP to hold off a General Election until certain conditions augur for a better result, such as construction work at the Fairmont Southampton really kicking off.

“Either way, I don’t see a General Election happening until next spring [post Budget] at the earliest. I don’t see it being imminent regardless of the by-election turnout.”

Although the OBA might be dabbling in crystal ball-gazing with the release of its platform, one experienced political observer described it as “lacklustre” and predicted a PLP win.

“Notwithstanding there are four candidates, the PLP will still win the seat. The PLP candidate is strong in the community and was a smart choice,” he said.

“The closest the OBA has come was in 2012 with Ray Charlton and the OBA just does not have the momentum, especially after a lacklustre platform release.”

The recent closing of the Fairmont Southampton deal, the Premier’s prediction of a budget surplus and his recently announced “spending splurge”, would, he said, be enough to get Dr Dill over the line — “along with the polling station being her own church”.

It was December last year that Jarion Richardson was elected as the OBA leader, but the observer was not optimistic about his future if the FDM performed well. Nor did he think Mr Burt’s position would be safe if the PLP were to lose.

“What is more interesting is how Marc Bean will perform. If he comes second, it could be a nail in the leadership coffin of Mr Richardson.”

He added: “Whatever the result, it will obviously influence any decision by the Premier to call an election.

“A win, no matter how big or small, will keep Mr Burt’s naysayers in his own party from making a move against him and ensure he will ride to success for a third time in a General Election.

“If the PLP were to lose the by-election, which is highly unlikely, Mr Burt will be in serious trouble.”

Another seasoned political analyst believes the result today could help the Premier determine whether to call an election in November or December or to wait until 2025.

“Mr Burt has form for calling snap elections, having gone to the polls two years early in 2020 to take advantage of his post-Covid popularity. He also caught the OBA off guard and they suffered as a result.

“A strong performance by the PLP, after the party saw some erosion in its votes in the Smith’s North by-election, might encourage him to call the election early.”

He agreed that the PLP would also be looking at how the opposition vote divides between the OBA, Mr Bean and the independent candidate.

“If the OBA seems to be losing votes to them, then that would be an added reason to strike now.”

He added: “Mr Burt has already lost one MP to the OBA and saw more rebel over the pension reform, so he may want to stop the rot now.

“There is a counter-argument that if the PLP performs poorly in the by-election, Mr Burt might want to go now before things get even worse, but that is more of a gamble.

“He may also bet that the economy will improve and some of the social initiatives in the mini-budget need time to take effect and make people feel better.

“Of course, by-elections are notoriously poor General Election indicators.

“The other thing all parties will be looking at is turnout. If it is even poorer than normal for a by-election, that would be a reason for the Premier not to go to the polls now.”

Candidates have their say

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