The Sandys North by-election prompts suggestions about potential strategies for success

After the result, Bermuda’s Twitterati were quick to point out what each party or movement had to do to win — or win better.

One recurring theme that appeared to catch imaginations — especially given that the One Bermuda Alliance, the official Opposition, came fourth out of four candidates — was the merging of parties.

The move, it was argued, would be the best way of challenging the governing Progressive Labour Party.

Yet one election observer noted: “The only way anything like this is feasible is for the OBA to accept they need to have such discussions.

“That would inevitably mean some OBA candidates who have been announced stepping aside and that is highly unlikely.”

Another seasoned watcher also believed a merger was unlikely, but could see the OBA adopting more libertarian-style policies to appeal to Free Democratic Movement supporters.

The commentator said: “I can see the attraction to the opposition movements for a unity approach. However, we’ve seen that before with the merger of the Bermuda Democratic Alliance and the United Bermuda Party to make the OBA, and that mostly just retained the UBP’s voter base while alienating much of the BDA base.

“I can see the junior partners of such a unity approach having some degree of caution around such a proposal. And, despite the by-election outcome, the OBA would still be the senior partners in any such move.”

Of the 456 votes cast on October 4, the PLP’s Reverend Emily Gail Dill gained 162; FDM leader Marc Bean, 108, the independent candidate Ci’re Bean, 95; and the OBA’s Carl Neblett, 91.

Even taking into account the low turnout — there are 1,200 registered voters in Sandys North — it seemed clear that the candidates were taking votes from each other.

So could they engage in the tactic of not selecting candidates in some constituencies to allow other parties a route to victory?

One observer said that the OBA might be happy to let the FDM and independents, or Swanites as he called them - after former premier Sir John Swan, who has been prominent in starting an independent movement - run in PLP strongholds.

He added: “The OBA loses nothing there, they can focus their actions on marginals and won’t have to worry too much about the others winning a seat, taking out their rivals while appearing magnanimous to them.”

Another observer, who has witnessed many elections in Bermuda, emphasised that by-elections were poor predictors of voter behaviour in a General Election.

“Having said that, the result does suggest that the opposition vote is up for grabs and is not locked in for any particular party or movement,” he added.

“It would obviously be better for the OBA if it did not face challenges from third parties and independents and it would make sense for [OBA leader] Jarion Richardson and the OBA leadership to establish why voters were drawn to other opposition parties and to adapt its platform to attract some of these voters.

“He should also make the case that neither the FDM nor the independents are likely to form a government.

“If voters are unhappy with the PLP’s direction, only the OBA can form a government.”

The commentator added: “In particular, he should try to bring Sir John Swan back into the OBA fold.”

Last week, one of the observers said in The Royal Gazette: “What is more interesting is how Marc Bean will perform. If he comes second, it could be a nail in the leadership coffin of Mr Richardson.”

Not only did Mr Bean come second, the OBA trailed in last. The same commentator was afterwards scathing about the result and said: “The OBA should absolutely have done better.

“They should be ashamed of their performance.

“They are the official Opposition, relegated to fourth place. Jarion needs to be much tougher. The nice guy approach is not working.”

However, one of the observers said the OBA should not be unhappy with its performance.

“Given the low turnout, their share of the vote actually rose from 15 per cent to 20 per cent even though the number of votes fell. But they will have to ask why they were unable to get more of the votes that went to Ci’re Bean.

“The OBA is in a better place than it was four years ago but I thought its platform was still a bit short of substance and serious policy ideas.

“It needs to get to grips with the problems at the forefront of voters' minds, especially the cost of living, if it wants to win a General Election.”

Is Mr Richardson’s job under threat? “I don’t think so,” said one of the observers. “Obviously it’s not ideal coming dead last. However, there really wasn’t much difference between the non-PLP results.”

He added that the biggest threat to the OBA was the “Swanist movement”.

“The OBA needs to either counter the Swan message directly or come to some sort of detente with it, perhaps in the form of a tactical voting pact.

“To me, the challenge in front of Mr Richardson is greater than the challenge facing David Burt.

“Mr Richardson is fighting on multiple fronts — a flanking attack from Swanites, another flanking attack from the FDM, and the PLP.”

Where does the result leave the FDM’s Mr Bean and the PLP?

“The real lesson of this by-election was PLP voters voting with their feet and not coming out,” added one of the observers.

“Some of that is expected, incumbent governments rarely increase their votes in by-elections, it’s mostly a question of how much their vote decreases.

“The PLP needs to figure out how much was due to local factors or the low stakes nature of the by-election and how much represents a national trend.

“If they feel that enough of it is representative of national sentiment, they’re going to have to figure out a strategy to get their voters back,” he added.

“The party that should be most concerned is the PLP,” said another of the observers.

“Despite the quirks of a by-election, losing almost half of your vote share in just four years is immensely worrying.

“Even allowing for Marc Bean's popularity in the area and the fact Emily Gail Dill was a relative newcomer, that would be very worrying for party strategists.”

At the 2020 General Election, the PLP won 431 votes in Sandys North.

Mr Bean has now lost two elections in a row in the same seat but one of the observers said this was not the end of him as politician.

“Marc has just started. He is part of a larger movement and usurped the official Opposition. If anything he can build on this and show there is an alternative.

“His issue will be proving his second place finish is an FDM result and not just a Marc Bean result,” said one of the observers.

Fed by a series of government announcements, a midyear spending review and an avalanche of submitted opinion articles, rumours of Mr Burt calling a General Election have been rife.

It was felt that the by-election result would clarify if he would call one soon. Will he?

“I doubt it,” said one of the observers. “They’re going to want to figure out how to get their voters back into the voting booth.”

“If I was a PLP strategist,” said another commentator, “I would be very worried that the party saw its vote share fall from 59 per cent to 35 per cent.

“If there were similar slides across the country, it would be a very bad night for the PLP and they could lose the election.

“There are reasons to think this result is unique, but I would lean towards holding off and looking to deliver a better economy and social programmes in 2025.”

Another of the observers said the likelihood of calling an election soon was “very high”. “There is more than enough precedent for this. It is the smart move.”