When the Government delivers its Throne Speech tomorrow, it will outline its legislative agenda for the next year, but what else could it tell us?

Former Progressive Labour Party premier Ewart Brown called a General Election only hours after his government’s Throne Speech was outlined.

Paula Cox, another PLP premier, waited a little longer — seven days after the Throne Speech was read — before dropping the election writ.

Rumours of an imminent election — fuelled by the recent midyear Budget review when the Premier unveiled a $25 million investment to tackle Bermuda’s social challenges — still refuse to go away, so could David Burt do the same?

The re-emergence of the Free Democratic Movement, the Sir John Swan-inspired “Swanite” independent candidates alongside a more active One Bermuda Alliance has complicated the political landscape for the Premier.

However, one seasoned former politician, who has been through several General Elections, said: “The Premier would be smart to call the election immediately after the Throne Speech.”

He said that while the recent by-election in Sandys North, won by the PLP’s Reverend Emily Gail Dill, was “not exactly an overwhelming endorsement of Mr Burt’s administration”, he was “savvy enough to understand that the so-called combined opposition could organise if he leaves things to drift”.

“The speech will be one loaded with the rhetoric Bermudians have come to expect from the PLP,” added the former politician, who asked not to be named.

“It will have the bogeyman argument that the One Bermuda Alliance is going to open the floodgates to immigration, that the Free Democratic Movement, OBA and Swanites will roll things back to the bad old days of the White oligarchy and that only the PLP has the interests of ‘real’ Bermudians at heart.

“David Burt will take a gamble since those that oppose him internally do not have enough traction and an alternative to unite behind.

“He will call an election to show he is still in control. If he loses more than, say, six or seven seats, then he may be under threat of an internal coup.”

He thought that the Throne Speech would be largely repetitive, repackaging old promises, but also expected to see “some nice little giveaways” as well as promises to use the corporate income tax revenue, predicted to be about $750 million a year, for infrastructure projects.

One young political observer, asked what he would do in the Throne Speech if he were the Premier, said he would look to present some easy wins that could be accomplished before the next General Election, focusing on addressing the cost of living.

He expected that the word “continue” would appear frequently and expected the main issues to get mentioned would be:

• Continued measures to address cost of living

• Tax measures aimed at keeping Bermuda attractive to international business, given the new global minimum tax

• Continuing to increase funding for mental health services, particularly for young people

• Measures around road safety to address the numerous recent deaths

• Policy proposals related to the benefits of joining Caricom

• Continuing reforms for health and education.

On how important the Throne Speech was for the PLP, he added: “Politically this is just another opportunity for the PLP government to recite their wins and use them to convince the general public that we should stay their course.

“The PLP leadership clearly feels threatened, based on the remarks they have made about the emerging groups. However, the opposition is too fragmented and disorganised to pose any real threat of the PLP losing the Government in the next election.

“We will mostly hear language that speaks to their core voter base, so the seniors demographic will be heavily featured throughout.”

More interesting, added the observer, who also asked not to be named, was how the various opposition actors would respond.

“They all need to demonstrate that they have both the ideas and the expertise to govern better than the PLP, as we have not seen any proof of this yet from any of them.

“If I were in their position, I would use this as an opportunity to present a clear and unified response, that would both highlight the shortcomings of the PLP government while also, and more importantly, define what a coalition government would do differently, and how and why.

“This would present a strong message of leadership and unity that could be the right, and only, recipe potent enough to remove the PLP’s supermajority government from power.”

Another person, who has been involved in politics for years and who has witnessed many Throne Speeches, said next year’s Budget was more likely to be geared towards an election — although tomorrow’s event would likely lay the groundwork.

“If I was the Premier I wouldn’t call a General Election right away. I’d want more time to make course changes and preparations for it, in light of the Sandys North by-election.

“I feel the by-election certainly was a warning for the PLP about the potential for a 2012 scenario [when the OBA won power], so they can take time now to take steps to minimise potential losses to avoid a full 2012.”

One person spoken to by The Royal Gazette, who asked to stay anonymous, said that PLP MPs and approved candidates had been asked to prepare for photo sessions for campaign literature.

Despite that, he said he did not think the Throne Speech would lay out an election platform.

“I think it’ll be electioneering through and through, and that is nothing that is unique to the PLP or the OBA. It is an occasion for the Government to set out an agenda.”

He added: “We’re in November of 2024. The last election was four years one month ago. We have to go five years before another election has to be called, so that will be sometime in 2025, early 2026.

“So we are on election footing, whether anyone wants to admit that or not.”

Former PLP MP and government minister, Rolfe Commissiong, who has refused to rule out running as an independent candidate in the next election, said he had seen poll numbers which looked “absolutely dismal for the Premier and the PLP”.

As a result, he said he thought the Premier would “seek to use this Throne Speech to attempt to convince their thoroughly disaffected base, before calling the election, that they are still a progressive party and or government determined to address the most intransigent issues with progressive public policies in order to bring relief to their hard-pressed, now turned-off supporters”.

“My guess is this Throne Speech is likely the last one before an election and will produce more than enough cynicism from the electorate.”

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• To read the 2023 Speech from the Throne, see Related Media

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