In 1935, the American novelist Sinclair Lewis published one of his most famous novels, It Can’t Happen Here, a cautionary tale about the potential for a fascist movement coming to power in the United States. As has been remarked by many, the similarities between his fictional fascist leader Buzz Windrip and Donald Trump, as well as various aspects of his fictional American fascism and the Maga movement, are uncanny. Despite this cautionary tale, we are now on the cusp of a fascist regime taking power in the US in January 2025. Quite frankly, it has happened there.

There are those who will accuse me of hyperbole in describing the incoming Trump regime as fascist — although the debate among scholars of history and fascism is basically whether he represents an American fascism for the 21st century, or an authoritarian movement based on right-wing populism, racism and patriarchy. For the lay person, there’s not much difference between those two. I believe that, while the first Trump regime was more that of right-wing populism with proto-fascist tendencies, it has now essentially morphed into a version of American fascism for the 21st century.

Whether or not you personally agree with my perception of the incoming Trump regime as fascist, what is indisputable is that the regime came to power on a nakedly and overtly racist, sexist and transphobic campaign, including explicit calls to weaponise the state to punish perceived enemies. It is a campaign that has called for the establishment of concentration camps as a precursor to cleanse the US body politic of non-White immigrants that he describes as “poisoning the blood of our country”. It is a campaign that openly called for the use of military force to deal with the “enemy within” — be they representatives of the Democratic Party or protesters such as Black Lives Matter or anti-genocide protests. It is a campaign that has been gifted kinglike power by its Supreme Court.

It may well be that the incoming Trump regime’s actual bite will be far milder than its bark during the election campaign — the president-elect is strong on racist demagogy but weak on actions beyond the superficial. And yet, it is a regime that has come to power despite its explicit fascist rhetoric and aping of past US fascist currents, right down to the racist Madison Square Garden rally, a repeat of the 1939 Nazi rally in the same venue. The question is more the long-term consequences, as well as international contagion.

There will, of course, be many who will seek to normalise this new fascism, be it out of fear or the realpolitiks of economic or security interests. I believe that, while we cannot pretend the US doesn’t exist, we shouldn’t engage in normalising the fascist regime. To do so would be to encourage the growth of fascism elsewhere — and while this will happen thanks to the hegemonic power of the US, it doesn’t mean we should facilitate it.

It is not possible in a single piece to properly assess all the numerous factors that contributed to this result; however, it is possible to provide a general overview of some of the key factors:

The failure of the Democratic Party

While its candidate didn’t lose badly, she still lost. A primary mistake was Joe Biden insisting on being the candidate initially. His eventual departure left the Democrats on the back foot. Further, the Democrats ran a superficial campaign, focused more on mobilising as opposed to organising; prioritising star power; and rehabilitating neoconservatives. Additionally, it prioritised protecting Apartheid Israel’s war crimes and genocide rather than upholding both US and international law ― alienating key voting demographics in the process. Importantly, it actively distanced itself from popular economic reforms out of fear of scaring wealthy donors.

The failure of neoliberalism

By prioritising profit above all else, the US oversaw the deindustrialisation of much of America. Why invest in industrial production in the US when there are greater profits to be had by exploiting labour in the imperial periphery, where workers could be made to work for far less than US workers, and client regimes would happily repress labour movements? A consequence was a whole generation living in precarious jobs, with far less real wages than the generations before them, leading to real economic and social anxiety to be exploited.

Identity politics

While Trumpists are quick to accuse the Democrats of engaging in “identity politics”, it was Maga that actively weaponised identity politics — only they did so playing to both the politics of Whiteness and patriarchy. A core aspect of Maga is a reaction by many Whites and men against very mild attempts to address ongoing racism, sexism and homophobia in the US. While this has propelled them to power, it is very much a sign of both White and male fragility. It is also very much a cynical distraction technique by the wealthy backers of Maga — sidetracking from the actual root problems of extreme and growing wealth inequality generated by neoliberalism.

Social media and AI

These have contributed to growing social isolation, leading to reduced bonds of trust, while algorithms have served to create right-wing radicalisation and the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories.

Of course, the ongoing consequences of the 2008 economic crisis, the failure of US military power in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the trauma of the pandemic have also played key roles. A key aspect being that labour’s share of the economic pie, post-pandemic, lagged behind other classes, and remains below its 2019 share.

• Jonathan Starling is a socialist writer with an MSc in Ecological Economics from the University of Edinburgh and an MSc in Urban and Regional Planning from Heriot-Watt University