Thirty years old, the Progressive Labour Party has spent its life in Opposition.

A "black party'' on a majority black Island, its leaders are convinced the PLP is on the verge of an electoral breakthrough. They offer a variety of reasons why the PLP has lost seven successive elections since 1968.

Gerrymandered constituencies is the most frequent charge from the PLP, with requirements for annual voter registration not far behind.

The party's inability to capture white votes, the bi-racial nature of the United Bermuda Party, the lack of business support to provide campaign funds, the Island's general prosperity over the last 25 years, and the lack of dynamic PLP leadership are reasons cited by other political observers.

Electoral boundaries are an ongoing sore point with the PLP. A Constituency Boundaries Commission must meet at least every seven years to determine whether boundary adjustments are needed.

But the Constitution specifies that wherever the lines are drawn, Pembroke shall be divided into four constituencies and all other parishes into two.

Each constituency elects two members to fill the 40-seat House of Assembly.

Opposition Leader Mr. Frederick Wade has pointed to a great disparity in the number of registered voters in Bermuda constituencies. That meant not all votes were of equal value, he said.

For instance, Paget East has the smallest number of voters for the 1989 election, with 1,221. Warwick East has twice as many, with 2,455.

The PLP has called for constitutional change to allow single-seat constituencies which are based on population and could cross parish boundaries.

Similarly, the PLP has charged that requiring voters to register each year works to the advantage of the UBP. In 1982, Mr. Wade even accused Government of "downplaying'' registration because there was an election year approaching.

Low registration would harm the PLP more than the UBP, he said. "It is their people who register as part of a routine,'' he said. "People who support the PLP do not register as regularly. People are strung out and these things are secondary to finding a job, feeding the family, or trying to pay the electricity bill.'' Precise figures on racial voting patterns are not available. It is believed that the PLP vote is almost 100 percent black, meaning the UBP collects all white votes, with the exception of those cast for the National Liberal Party and Independents (13 percent of the total in 1989).

The UBP estimates it collects 20 to 30 percent of the black vote, but the PLP would say that figure is high.

In any case, while some PLP members resist the "black party'' label, the facts suggest that the PLP's ambitions to form a Government are hindered by an inability to appeal to white voters, combined with continuing difficulties in getting potential black supporters to the polls.

Mr. Alex Scott, the PLP's campaign co-chairman, recently said that the UBP was much more successful at getting voters to the polls than the PLP was.

The UBP has never polled less than 50 percent of the popular vote. The PLP polled 37 percent of the vote in 1989. Its strongest vote was 46 percent in 1980, prior to the PLP purge that led to the formation of the National Liberal Party.

That split, along with leadership problems over the years, has also contributed to PLP problems.

In predicting a PLP Government, Mr. Scott has said the recession that Bermuda felt since 1989 will affect voting on October 5. Bermuda has only known relative prosperity under the UBP. This time, "the promise of economic security that the UBP suggested they would bring ... never materialised,'' he said.

The PLP also points hopefully to the candidacy of Bermuda Industrial Union fishermen's division head Mr. Danny Farias in Devonshire South.

A Portuguese and the PLP's second white candidate, Mr. Farias is not expected to win. But the PLP has said it hopes to attract Portuguese votes to push its candidates over the top in marginal constituencies.

OCTOBER 1993 ELECTION