“The more things change the more in essence they remain the same, or even worsen, as time marches on”

Although one might excuse the “political newbies”, you would think that the alleged seasoned and once “high-ranking” former politicians would or should know better. They should know by now, for example, that unless and until the electoral voting process of “first past the post” is replaced by a suitable variant of a proportional representation electoral voting system or process, Bermuda and Bermudian voters are going to be sorely disappointed, and once again be dominated by the hegemony of a two-party parliamentary outcome.

The Westminster parliamentary process in and of itself does not bring about such a result. The Westminster process is a “parliamentary” process and not an “electoral process” — plain and simple. The proportional representation electoral process and system widens the electoral process, and vastly increases the chances of putting deserving independents, small political parties and pressure groups such as the Emperial Group into the House of Assembly as Members of Parliament.

Although they differed with the United Bermuda Party government of the time, the Black Beret Cadre in the 1970s and 1980s championed a suitable version of proportional representation. Absent the degree of expansive change in the electoral system that the PR system guarantees, the earlier-named political parties and groups would experience a political bloodbath under the existing “first past the post” electoral system, as they blithely whistle Dixie along their wistful journey into the inevitable and promised political wastelands that most assuredly await.

The iniquity and inequity of undemocratic safe seats

Under “first past the post”, with both the One Bermuda Alliance and Progressive Labour Party enjoying the traditional safe seats because of Bermuda’s historical and geographical race and class-based voting blocs, the Free Democratic Movement, Sir John Swan’s Independent Candidates Movement for Change and indeed the OBA itself will gratuitously hand the election to the PLP on a golden platter — particularly when running candidates in marginal battleground constituencies.

The ones to watch are Hamilton South (Constituency 7), Devonshire North Central (Constituency 13), Devonshire North West (Constituency 14), Warwick North Central (Constituency 27), Southampton West Central (Constituency 31) and Southampton West (Constituency 32). They will do so with the PLP having to garner fewer votes than it achieved in those very same constituencies at the last General Election.

The PLP should be loudly applauding and championing the cause of independents at this juncture, not condemning it. Under “first past the post”, the PLP does not have to work as hard to secure the requisite votes it needs to win constituencies and the overall election. Looking at the political landscape, even with the prospect of an historically low turnout, the PLP should nevertheless end with 22 to 23 seats, the OBA with ten or 11, the FDM with one, possibly two, and the independents with a “ long shot” maximum of two.

At this point, the PLP’s battle cry should be at this point: “Bring it on, independents, you godsent spoilers. What ya waiting for?”

Misplaced energies, misguided leadership

You would think that allegedly smart and astute politicians, party-based or otherwise, would harness and mobilise the not-so-insignificant energies and numbers of apathetic voters and independents this time around to replace the moribund and unfair electoral system of “first past the post” with proportional representation. Being successful in achieving that objective would provide the means and set the stage for a more pluralistic and diverse political representation in the House of Assembly — if indeed that is truly their mission in life. It might also lead to a coalition government if sufficient independents, small parties and groups are successful at the polls. Doing otherwise has the ring of egotistic and grandstanding selfishness, self-glorification and self-aggrandisement rather than independent thought, innovation and selflessness on the part of the people.

Instead of the electorate blowing their backs, necks and minds out in a perennial political and electoral blood sport, it seems to me that those energies would be better spent pulling together a real and purposive movement for change; that is, a movement to create a fairer electoral process that guarantees a wider representation in the House of Assembly than the two political parties that dominate that space at present. To my mind, that is the only way the groups and parties can avoid or at least dampen, for some, the dreaded call of:

“All de vay, PLP. PLP, all de vay.”

The core issue

Let’s be granular, face the facts and remove the fantasy. The PLP can comfortably lose ten seats and still win the government. It would draw or lose if they surrender 11 or 12 seats from its existing number. An 18-18 draw with the OBA would likely send the country back to the polls again. A draw of 17-17 or fewer between the PLP and OBA would mean that the independents, FDM or Emperial Group — or a combination of the three — could choose the government of the day. However, that would be only in the case of a relatively close election, which I do not see happening.

Without taking a deep dive into a detailed analysis, the circumstances of 2025 in comparison with 2012 are starkly different, particularly so with the 2012-2017 period that brought the OBA’s experience with the airport and proposed Pathways to Status. But let’s not be distracted: please look closely around Bermuda’s constituency map, replete with PLP and OBA safe seats, and honestly ask ourselves, “Whence cometh those 12 seats that will be taken away from the PLP to make it lose this election?”

Straight up, real talk, let’s have it! Not to mention the terribly difficult challenges facing Bermuda right now, and given the number, the constituencies where they are running, and the political quality and experience in Bermuda and internationally — or more truthfully the lack thereof of those candidates vying to take these crucial seats away from the PLP — what are their true chances of pulling off this major political upset? A snowball’s baby brother in hell has a better chance of making it through than them, you would think, eh?

Here, I’ll let you in on a little secret: in the political scenario and electoral circumstances that I am observing, and with only the one shot that I have, my bet’s on Baby Snowball.

• Phil Perinchief was attorney-general under the Progressive Labour Party government between 2006 and 2007

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