The result of the February 18 General Election is likely to be much closer than the 2020 poll, according to three veterans of Bermuda politics.

John Barritt, Michael Dunkley and Jonathan Starling expect the One Bermuda Alliance to make inroads into the 30-6 majority the Progressive Labour Party secured at the last General Election.

Mr Barritt, who served in the United Bermuda Party government in the 1990s and was the OBA leader when the party was in opposition, said election night would be “great spectator sport” — but that the outcome was difficult to forecast.

He argued that the 2020 General Election was an anomaly in part because of the Covid pandemic in which the Government won over supporters for the way it managed the crisis.

Mr Barritt said: “The 2012 and 2017 elections may be better guides and pinpoint the seats the OBA must win to increase their number.”

He believed that the OBA had several factors working in its favour including “the natural pendulum swing that moves from any government party after a period of time”. The PLP has been in government for more than 21 years since 1998.

Mr Barritt added: “The politics of grievance that arise from issues like grocery bills, Belco bills and potholes to name just a few that cut across all barriers — these do not work in favour of the governing party.”

Mr Dunkley, a former premier in the OBA government, also argued that the PLP’s track record in office would work against it.

He said: “As one voter told me recently a vote for the PLP is a vote for the same failed policies.

“No doubt the feeling is substantial in that people are tired of the PLP and want change, but saying it and, actually voting for it, will only be known late next Tuesday evening.”

Mr Starling, a political activist and commentator, supported that view.

He said: “Had the PLP done everything perfectly over the last term I would still expect them to lose seats — there's always an anti-incumbency trend, and the global cost-of-living crisis is a factor, plus the OBA is better organised this time.”

Mr Barritt and Mr Starling both thought that the PLP had run a superior, “slick” election campaign.

“They have drawn sharp attention to the issues,” Mr Barrit said.

“All the others could have been, should have been more focused on bread-and-butter issues and their solutions.”

Mr Dunkley took a different view.

He said: “The PLP has run a typical campaign of endeavouring to embellish a record and being negative about other parties and candidates.

“It remains to be seen if the tactic will work as their record, among other things, consists of abysmal public education reform, lots of talk but no healthcare reform, skyrocketing cost of living, violent crime and infrastructure decay. It is not one to brag about.

“To their credit, the OBA released a platform well before the election was called and have had ample time to be on the doorstep. This should put them in a position to win a number of additional seats.”

All three men agreed that voter turnout and the unprecedented number of candidates running, could affect the result.

Mr Barritt said that a low voter turnout could also help the OBA pick up seats, but cautioned: “But where there are now independents and FDM candidates, votes may be split which makes that difficult, if not impossible.

“We may look back on this election as a tipping point. With the different candidates, we can see clearly that there has been some peeling away from the two parties, PLP and OBA, particularly with some of the new, younger and fresh faces that have stepped forward.

“There is a message there for the PLP and OBA of a growing dissatisfaction with political parties and the way in which they govern not just the country but themselves. How strong a message will be seen in the results.

Mr Dunkley also expected turnout to be low but could not say if that gave any political group an advantage.

He said: “I suggest there will be a lower than usual turnout next week due to voter dissatisfaction with the PLP. It is up to the OBA and other candidates to convince voters to turn out and vote for change.

“This election will go down in history as one with the largest number of candidates and largest number of independent candidates. It is likely they will impact both the OBA and PLP but only in a few constituencies can one expect to see an FDM or independent candidate make a difference or to win a seat.

“However, a low turnout increases the chance of an upset win.”

For Mr Starling the large number of independents will work in the PLP’s favour.

He said: “The data seems to indicate that PLP voters either vote PLP or don't vote, they don't tend to defect in a significant way.

“I think the independent candidates really just split the anti-PLP vote. Only a handful have the capacity to attract PLP voters.”

Mr Barritt and Mr Starling concluded that the PLP would form the next government but with a reduced majority.

Mr Dunkley did not predict a winner but expected the PLP to lose seats “due to widespread dissatisfaction across the island”.

He added: “No matter what the result, our problems will need urgent attention and all those elected or appointed to the legislature must put aside any political differences and do what is required to make the island a better place."