Bermuda’s insurance industry is better positioned than most to navigate the geopolitical and regulatory minefields facing the world today, but industry leaders at the Bermuda Risk Summit emphasised the need to be ready for anything.

Speaking on a panel about geopolitical risks – called "black swans and grey rhinos" – at the Hamilton Princess & Beach Club on Wednesday, the experts warned that while Bermuda had long been a stable force in the industry, global unpredictability, from trade wars to cyberthreats to bombs falling, required companies to continually test their assumptions and prepare for shocks.

Multiple panellists praised the Bermuda Monetary Authority as a stabilising force in a volatile world.

“The BMA is probably the crown jewel of what brings Bermuda into this sphere and the influence that it has,” said Mitch Blaser, the co-chief executive of Mosaic. “There was always a great dialogue between the regulator and the business people. You could always have a meeting in ten minutes in town … so the regulator was an informed regulator, thinking about both the business environment and the macro aspects.”

Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes at Price Forbes Re, echoed this, describing Bermuda as a place where regulatory collaboration promotes innovation rather than stifling it. “The answer wasn’t ‘no.’ It might have been ‘no, but try this’ or ‘you’re halfway there – try that,’” he said. “That collaborative spirit is what elevates the industry here.”

This ability to balance oversight with business-friendly policies has given Bermuda an edge over other financial hubs.

Some panellists warned, however, that external risks – including geopolitical tensions, inflation and climate change – posed threats to Bermuda’s insurance market.

Kevin Kajiwara, co-president, political risk advisory at Teneo, pointed out that many companies had been caught off guard by major geopolitical events in recent years.

“If you go back to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, the US intelligence community was telling corporate America to get ready – there was an 85 per cent probability that this was going to happen,” Mr Kajiwara said. “Some companies were prepared within days, if not hours. Others – many Fortune 100 companies – were caught like deer in the headlights.”

Such unpredictability, he argued, underscored the need for ongoing scenario planning. “Just because you got the combination of factors right in the past doesn’t mean you’re going to get it right in the next phase,” he said. “You have to step away from the chaos of the near term and think about the big picture.”

Bermuda’s insurance market has always been seen as a safe port in the storm, panellists agreed. But they cautioned that the US government’s focus on bolstering its own economic strength could lead to challenges.

“There’s a real question about traditional lobbying in Washington,” Mr Kajiwara noted. “It has to be thought of in a more multifaceted way right now. We have already seen industries that were perceived as close to this administration still having the rug pulled out from under them.”

Mr Johansmeyer added that many of the major risks facing insurers were not traditional underwriting problems but asset-side concerns – market volatility, inflation and climate change.

“When you look at the major events affecting the insurance industry in the past 15 years – 2008, Covid, the war in Ukraine – these were asset-side problems,” he said. “As an insurer, you have to think about how you change your business moving forward.”

Despite the challenges, Bermuda’s reputation as a regulatory safe haven and innovation hub remains strong.

Chintan Shah, the head of front office and treasury risk at Bloomberg, said the territory’s approach to supervised entities and regulatory stability inspired confidence in investors and businesses.

“The regulatory volatility that I believe is a genuine risk has not emerged in the insurance space, possibly,” he said. “And let’s hope that it stays that way.”

With uncertainty all over the globe, the panellists agreed that Bermuda’s ability to stay ahead of global trends, maintain strong regulatory dialogue and adapt would help keep its insurance sector at the forefront.

“In the end,” Mr Kajiwara said. “There will be winners and losers. Those who are open to the notion that a real change in direction is going to be necessary will be the ones who come out ahead.”