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Retail sales index: Where is the rebound?

Consumer spending in September was considerably weaker than retailers would have liked.Sales volumes were up a mere one percent over last year even though September, 2001 was one of the worst periods on record after shoppers cut spending in response to the terrorist attacks on America.

Consumer spending in September was considerably weaker than retailers would have liked.

Sales volumes were up a mere one percent over last year even though September, 2001 was one of the worst periods on record after shoppers cut spending in response to the terrorist attacks on America.

Retail Sales Index (RSI) figures released by Government yesterday showed that sales for September, 2002 were up by 2.9 percent over last year - or an increase of one percent in the volume of retail sales after adjustment for inflation which stood at two percent for the month.

Chairman of the retail division of the Chamber of Commerce George Grundmuller said yesterday that although retailers would be pleased that retail sales were showing an upward trend, it was not to the level they had hoped for: "When you consider that these figures are compared to last September - and the events of September 11 - retailers would have liked to see (sales) a bit stronger."

Last year consumers reacted to the economic certainty surrounding the events of September 11 by pushing down gross turnover for the retail sector by nearly six percent to $48.4 million. But retailers' hopes for a strong rebound this year - with both September 2001 and 2002 having 24 shopping days - did not pan out with sales moving up a marginal $1.4 million to $49.8 million.

At least one sector did however see strong growth during the month with sales of building materials posting the strongest gain in monthly sales. Aggregate receipts for the sector rose 18.4 percent year-over-year which was attributed to an increase in retail and contract sales for the Island's construction industry.

Another sector to see some growth was apparel and clothing accessories sales which moved up eight percent but other sectors saw much lower sales levels. Service stations reported a 4.7 percent increase in sales while liquor stores posted a 4.2 percent gain. But food stores actually saw a decline with gross receipts down 0.9 percent compared to September, 2001.And the motor vehicle sector, which had already seen sales fall off in recent months, posted a decline in gross receipts of 2.4 percent.

And retailers may have been disappointed by figures that showed residents stepped up their overseas shopping with purchases from vacations and business trips declared at a value of $3.6 million in September. This level of expenditure was 24.6 percent higher than figures declared for September, 2001.

On the flip side, tourist-related sales advanced by 33.2 percent compared to the same period last year, when travellers may have cancelled holiday plans given the terrorist attacks.

Mr. Grundmuller was pragmatic about the level of local spending abroad: "Overseas spending levels do concern us but if you remember that after September 11 travel levels almost collapsed, this figure has to be put into that context."

Mr. Grundmuller added: "Consumers will always shop overseas, but our message is for shoppers to look at the great bargains that can be offered here. We just ask consumers to compare...What we hope to do, as a group (of retailers) is to deliver value and excitement locally, for consumers," he said.

A canvas of clothing retailers yesterday made it clear that shops are pinning their hopes on strong Christmas sales.

The RSI reported that in September, the "majority of retailers in (the clothing) sector reported sales receipts above the previous year's levels" but at least one retailer, general manager of the Pro Shop Frank Brewster, said his sales for the month had actually been down from September, 2001. And like many retailers, Mr. Brewster said he was hoping for good Christmas sales: "We have a lot of stock - and we've gone heavier on clothing lines this year in hopes of getting sales - but only time will tell."

Two other retail outfits - 27th Century Boutique and Gibbons Company - told The Royal Gazette sales had been up this September over last year but Gibbons general manager Susan Bawn said although the store had been "happy with the level of sales since September," there was concern from retailers over whether Christmas sales would be as strong as hoped.

"We are concerned about the next six weeks as this is when we look to make a large part of our annual (sales) volume."

Although travel concerns - after the September 11 attacks - may have affected travel levels last year, Ms Bawn said that the November 11 holiday was typically when a lot of locals went away to Christmas shop: "I've heard comments about how the flights coming in after the November 11 holiday were full or over-subscribed with luggage..." she said. Mr. Grundmuller concluded that, heading into the key Christmas shopping period, shop owners would be banking on stronger sales: "So far we are optimistic that Christmas sales will be better than last year which was one of the worst on record for retailers - but it is too early to tell."

Bermudians received a slight break at the gas pumps. Gasoline dropped by 2.2 cents per litre, now costing 128.90 cents per litre, compared to 131.1 cents per litre last month. With a drop of 1.6 cents per litre for diesel, consumers will now pay 105.90 cents per litre, a little less than the 107.5 cents per litre they paid in October. And the price of kerosene dropped by 2.4 cents per litre to 82 cents per litre. Last month, the price of kerosene was 84 cents per litre.