The Bermuda Government released its Gross Domestic Report for 2013 this month, and the numbers give rise for some cautious optimism.

The report said that GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services produced in Bermuda, and is the most important measure of the economy’s health, rose by 0.7 percent to $5.6 billion.

After taking economy-wide inflation into account, the economy contracted for the fifth consecutive year, by 2.5 percent. That’s not such good news, but it is the smallest decline since 2010 and the second smallest since 2008 when the economy last grew in real terms.

What this seems to suggest (and there will be disagreement on this) is that the recession finally bottomed out in 2013 which in turns support the indications that the economy is growing in 2014.

That does not mean the economy is back where it was before the 2008 crash. In fact the 2013 economy is now functioning at the levels reached in 2006. In real terms, the economy is smaller than it was in 2003. And growth, so far, is slow and uneven.

But there was growth in international business and tourism, Bermuda’s two main earners of foreign exchange, which Bermuda needs in order to buy virtually everything we consume. It is reasonable to expect that when these areas grow, the rest of the economy will follow.

Still, there’s a long way to go, and it is also likely that the recovery will be uneven — some sectors of the economy will grow much faster than others, and some will continue to contract.

What does this mean for jobs and employment? The employment figures for 2013 showed that the number of jobs continued to decline, falling to 34,277 — the lowest level since 1995.

So it is pretty clear that jobs growth tends to lag behind economic and productivity growth in this recovery. That has been true around the world. There are a number of reasons for this, some global and some local. As has been widely reported, Government is under pressure to reduce spending and is unlikely to hire, while private sector employers are still very cautious about adding new staff. In addition, technological changes and outsourcing means that job creation by employers is not happening as much in Bermuda, where the cost base remains high, but is happening elsewhere.

Even though Bermuda is arguably more competitive now than it was at the start of the recession, this remains a reality.

So where was the growth?

1. International business grew for the second straight year, growing 3.5 percent. Growth in re/insurance was offset by declines in financial services.

2. Hotels saw improvement, but restaurants contracted.

3. Transport and communications were steady.

4. Financial intermediation (banks and local insurers) grew slightly.

Sectors that continue to struggle include:

Construction, which shrank by 4.4 percent and is less than half the size it was in 2007.

Wholesale and retail sales sectors declined slightly although car sales rose.

Real estate and rentals slipped as did businesses who provide services to international business like accountants and law firms.

If the leading areas of growth were in international business and tourism, it makes sense to look for work in these areas, since that is where continued growth is most likely.

Of course, it always makes sense to look in sectors where there are disproportionately low numbers of Bermudians working. For people with strong academic backgrounds, there remains demand for actuaries and accountants. People with the ability to work with food will find high demand for chefs, butchers and waiters. The medical field continues to have a disproportionate number of non-Bermudians, including nurses and doctors.

Other sectors, like law, IT and accounting are likely to recover in turn, assuming that new businesses needing these services form and set up physical presences in Bermuda. There is some evidence of this, although more start-ups and new tourism ventures are needed to generate new jobs.

Against that, jobs that were taken out of Bermuda in the last decade are unlikely to return in a real way, especially in areas like IT. But there is scope in Bermuda for genuinely creative and skilled work and entrepreneurs.

The same truth applies for all Bermuda employment. Demand now and in the future is for people with skills — in all areas of the economy. That’s the challenge now for Bermuda — to ensure Bermudians of working age have the skills necessary for this new economy — and that students are trained for the new economy as well.

You can e-mail Bill Zuill at marketing@bes.bm with comments or questions. Versions of this column and others are on www.bermudaemployment.com