China to raise rate again in 2011
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s central bank will raise interest rates once more this year before pausing in its current policy tightening cycle and keep rates on hold in the first half of 2012, a Reuters poll showed.The People’s Bank of China raised interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday, making clear that taming inflation remains a top priority even as economic growth eases.A slim majority of economists polled by Reuters expect one more 25-basis-point rise in bank lending rates and deposit rates by end-2011, while most expect further tightening in the bank reserve ratio (RRR) this year.These expected hikes would put China’s benchmark one-year lending rate at 6.81 percent, from the current 6.56 percent, and the one-year deposit rate at 3.75 percent from 3.5 percent.The RRR could be hiked by a total 100 basis points, to new record high of 22.5 percent at the end of 2011, according to the median of estimates in the poll.“The current tightening cycle may be near its end, but we cannot rule out the possibility of another rate rise in the rest of the year” as inflation levels remain elevated, said Gao Shanwen, chief economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.Annual inflation in China is expected to quicken to 6.3 percent in June from 5.5 percent May, pushing real interest rates deeply in negative territory.Seven out of the 16 analysts said the latest rate increase announced on Wednesday could be the last rate hike for 2011.“If July CPI comes down, as we expect, then we think this is likely the last rate hike of the year,” Tao Wang, economist at UBS, said in a report .”However, there is a risk that July CPI could stay as high as June or climb even higher, which could lead to another rate hike in August.”All three rates are expected to stay on hold in the first half of 2012, the poll shows.The central bank has raised interest rates five times since October and lifted the deposit reserve requirement ratio (RRR) nine times.Fearful that increasing interest rates too aggressively could fuel hot money inflows, the central bank has relied heavily on raising reserve requirements to mop up liquidity.As inflation stays high, central bank will be vigilant on prices, and it could use interest rates as more effective policy tool to manage inflation expectations.“The authorities are likely to rely more on interest rates as the tool for monetary policy normalisation going forward,” Dong Tao, an economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong said in a research note to clients.