Island may not see real economic growth until 2013
The year 2012 is set to be a challenging year ahead with the recession continuing to impact businesses across the board.But there are some reasons for optimism as companies look to take advantage of the opportunities available and better position themselves as they come out of it at the other end.The Royal Gazette spoke to leaders from each industry about their outlook and hopes and aspirations for the next 12 months.Brad Kading, president of the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers (ABIR), said that with an estimated $100 billion in global property catastrophe losses in 2011, reinsurers’ main priority would be to earn a profit this year.“After a couple of bad years under the belt, reinsurers are in need of some underwriting profits in 2012,” he said. “Investment opportunities will continue to be limited, so the eyes are focused on the underwriting bottom line.”Mr Kading said that the Bermuda Monetary Authority continued to work towards achieving the regulatory requirements for Solvency II and other international standards, all of which were of critical importance to the internationally active insurance group sector that ABIR represents.“ABIR wrote 22 letters to consult with the BMA on regulatory issues in 2011,” he said. “The pace will continue in 2012. We’re looking for a favourable EIOPA (European Insurance and Occupational Pension Agency) assessment in the summer of 2012. It will be another challenging year on the regulatory front.He said that with elections expected in both the US and Bermuda in 2012 some of the campaign rhetoric had the potential to jangle the business sector’s nerves.“There are plenty of big picture issues on which politicians may stay focused,” he said. “Bermuda’s internationally active insurance groups play important roles in both jurisdictions. We will continue to make our beneficial economic contributions known to majority and minority parties in both jurisdictions.”John Kephart, CEO of Capital G Ltd, said that Bermuda and the global market faced another tough year ahead but was hopeful that events would turn around soon.“From my standpoint we are stuck right now in the Eurozone situation that has yet to fully work itself out which creates a significant amount of uncertainty in the market,” he said.“That is reflected in virtually everybody’s daily lives here from very a low interest rate environment where it is very hard to find good rates to greater risks as reflected in the uncertainty in the international markets.“The US has its own concerns with an election.“Overall internationally we have got a challenging year ahead.”In Bermuda he said it would be another case of waiting and seeing whether the two main pillars of the economy, international business and tourism, began producing at the same level as they used to before the financial crisis hit.“It is no secret the number of ex-pats that have left and the work permits issued is down by a significant number. which has had a huge impact on cash flow from homes to rent and services to sell,” he said.“For the tourist industry it has been a complicated and difficult year with not enough product and tourists not travelling the way they used to either.“There are a lot of wait and sees including Morgan Point, Southlands and Carl Bazarian’s development in St George’s.“It’s just going to be another year of being more careful and more cautious about how you spend your money and what you spend it on.“From our perspective at the bank we hope to finally reach a stable platform from which we can start planning with everyone here about how to grow.“We will continue to work as best we can in ensuring that our clients have every tool at their disposal to help them through this difficult time.”Richard Moseley, deputy CEO of HSBC Bermuda, said that the world would continue to be economically challenged in 2012 with ongoing significant uncertainty.“The biggest concern is the seemingly continued and tortured paralysis among policymakers in both the European Union and the United States,” he said. “Bermuda tends to lag the US by 12 to 15 months, so we expect low interest rates and subdued economic activity here in 2012. We will continue working closely with our customers during this period.”Alison Hill, CEO of The Argus Group, said she was cautiously optimistic about the year ahead, with the company remaining focused on its core business delivering financial security and peace of mind, innovative product solutions and top service and value for money, as the difficult economic environment prevailed.“A particular area of focus for Argus in 2012 will be maintaining an active dialogue and collaborating with the Government and other stakeholders on implementation strategies for the National Health Plan,” she said.“Argus employees have been appointed to four of the eight task groups, each working towards a particular goal. The Financing and Reimbursement Work Group, on which Argus is represented, is one of the most challenging given the economic climate. In the long-term the Nation Health Plan aims to cut the cost of healthcare, which is obviously a goal that Argus supports for the benefit of all.”John Wight, CEO of BF&M, said that 2012 had the potential to be an even tougher year for Bermudians than that which has just gone.“The western world may not see any real economic growth until 2013 and this will affect Bermuda’s growth in 2012 as world economies are all closely linked,” he said.“Having said that, Bermuda must become proactive in determining its destiny. There is a new ‘normal’ for Bermuda that we all must accept and respond to. Success for Bermuda will only be achieved if there is a close relationship between the public and private sector which may result in decisions that will be difficult for the island in the short term but pave the way for Bermuda’s success in the long-term.”Len Czarnecki, general manager of The Fairmont Hamilton Princess, was more upbeat about his company’s performance over the year ahead.“Despite the global economic challenges, we at The Fairmont Hamilton Princess remain confident about 2012 and are forecasting stronger revenue per available room over 2011,” he said.“We look to build upon our strong relationships with international business travellers and we will continue to work with the Bermuda Department of Tourism in attracting visitors to the island by offering a compelling product for our leisure traveller.”Kristi Grayston, owner of Pulp & Circumstance, said that 2012 would be another hard year for retailers but it was key to stay focused on their staple business customers and vendors.“The question of whether or not retail can succeed in Bermuda is not ours to answer,” she said. “We just need to keep delivering good products and services at the best price we can. We would love to see 2012 start an economic recovery in Bermuda and see retail flourish.”Kendra Mello, general manager of Coldwell Banker Bermuda Realty, said that both residential and commercial rentals had performed well in 2011 but there was a significant amount of inventory in those areas and therefore the realtor was projecting a slower absorption in the New Year.“External demand is the missing link, with a noticeable decrease in non-Bermudian inquiries,” she said. “A lack of external demand for rentals creates a ‘trickle-down effect’ for sales because Bermudians who own property must reconsider their investments and often their own living arrangements due to lack of rental income. This phenomenon can also affect locals’ ability to obtain financing on new homes because it impacts their debt ratio when borrowing.”Zach Moniz, manager of Lindo’s Group of Companies, said that despite not expecting the economy to turnaround in the next few months, his company would continue to invest in the Island and its people.“This is our home, and we know that together we can turn this ship around,” he said. “We are grateful to have been a part of the Bermuda community for 50 years and we will aspire to continue offering quality products at fair prices in a clean and friendly environment.”Michael Butler, general manager of Bermuda Motors and chairman of the Bermuda Automotive Distributors’ Association (BADA), said he just wished that the economy could rebound to boost employment and enable businesses to survive and prosper.“The outlook however for the next couple of years does not look good unless Bermuda can attract more investment,” he said. “The motor industry will struggle to survive in its present form unless the economy improves. But we are optimistically hoping for better times next year.”Lois Wilson, owner of the MoneyShop, which will be opening its third location in Royal Naval Dockyard in March 2012, with the service offered through Internationally Connected allow tourists and crew members to send and receive money using Moneygram as well as US dollar exchange, believes that this year will be even tougher and customers will be more discerning in their spending.“Therefore it is even more imperative that business owners offer value for money, excellent, professional and friendly service and give back into the communities that support them,” she said.“When the job market is very restricted and as difficult as it is, it is time for each person to soul search and think about opportunities that are not currently being offered or that can be done better.“You need to think about what people are going to need in the future and what are they going to be willing to pay for. Sometimes the simplest of business ideas can generate great results when implemented and serviced well.”