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Premier's honeymoon

‘Tis the season for polls, apparently.Two political polls have come out in successive days, one from Walton Brown and the other from Mindmaps, The Royal Gazette’s regular pollster. While there are differences between the two, with Mr Brown’s tending to show the Progressive Labour Party as stronger and the Opposition parties as weaker than the Mindmaps poll, the general picture is clear.The change in leadership in the Progressive Labour Party has given the governing party a boost, with Premier Paula Cox enjoying strong popularity ratings, which in turn has made people say they are more likely to vote for the PLP. At the same time, support for the United Bermuda Party and the Bermuda Democratic Alliance remains divided, although both polls show the UBP in a stronger position than the BDA.As Mr Brown says in his column on this page, things can change very fast in politics. Former Premiers Dame Jennifer Smith and Dr Ewart Brown both started with stratospheric popularity figures and ended at the other end of the scale. Nonetheless, Ms Cox’s popularity seems to suggest that the change in tone to a more consensus-oriented approach has been welcomed, and there seems to be a general lightening of the mood within the community.To some degree, that is at odds with the Island’s economic condition, from which Ms Cox appears to have a teflon-like immunity, despite having presided over the recession as Finance Minister. That does not mean her popularity will last, but it does mean that this is the time to use her popularity to effect meaningful change because this will become harder as time goes on.It is curious that the public, at the same time that it gives the Premier and the Government higher marks than they have received in years, also say they don’t want a General Election. The message seems to be that the Government, rather than politicking, should govern and solve Bermuda’s problems.Whether these polls mark the high point of Ms Cox’s honeymoon or not will depend largely on the Budget. Depending on how it is framed, the public may acknowledge that hard decisions and sacrifices have to be made, or they may protest, especially if the sacrifices are not being shared fairly. On that note, Ms Cox would do well to follow the advice of Shadow Finance Minister E.T. (Bob) Richards by cutting Cabinet salaries.As for the Opposition parties, the polls make the case for some kind of amalgamation all the stronger. Although it seems unlikely that they are as unpopular as Mr. Brown’s poll says, the Mindmaps poll shows their support remains fairly evenly split. In particular, the BDA seems to have lost its way, a marked contrast to the period before the Warwick South Central by-election when it was the UBP that looked like it was on its last legs.Now the UBP seems to be enjoying a slight resurgence and the BDA is struggling. But what is also clear is that neither party, as things stand, has a chance of becoming the government on its own, and they risk instead to split the vote and being wiped out. What is notable is that the BDA still attracts a good deal of young support, whereas the UBP’s support is getting older by the day. It also seems likely that there are BDA supporters who would never join the UBP.Thus a new entity seems to be the best way forward for them.