Dropping popularity
The poll ratings for Premier Paula Cox and the Progressive Labour Party have slumped dramatically in the last three months.There is no doubt that Ms Cox’s honeymoon is over, and she would be taking a large risk if she called a general election now. Indeed, her approval rating has now reached the depths of her predecessors, but in their cases, it took several years. Ms Cox has done it in a matter of months. This seems to be largely due to the poor state of the economy, as poll reports in Wednesday’s Royal Gazette will show a deep lack of confidence.It is likely that this would have affected anyone who was Premier now, but it has been doubly damaging for Ms Cox because she was Finance Minister in the run-up to the recession and is Finance Minister now. Normally, the Finance Minister would be expected to take some of the opprobrium for the Island’s economic troubles, but in Ms Cox’s case it all falls in her lap.Falling popularity is not a good reason to end this joint role, but this newspaper still believes that the Premier should take more of a chief executive officer role, able to look over a wide horizon, instead of becoming preoccupied with the day to day detail of overseeing a Ministry. Going hand in hand with this is the Government’s perceived lack of a plan for economic recovery. On Friday it at last started mooting some ideas to ease Immigration rules and ease land ownership, but that was too late for this poll. In any case, much more innovative thinking is needed.If she and the PLP can take heart from anything, it is that the One Bermuda Alliance has not overtaken the PLP in the polls, but is in a virtual tie. Both parties will be pleased that around 37 percent of all voters are undecided. That makes a General Election anyone’s to win. The OBA will be disappointed it has not brought over all of the UBP and Bermuda Democratic Alliance’s together. Many voters seem to be saying they want to learn more about the new party first. That suggests the OBA needs to finalise its leadership sooner rather than later and provide more detail on its policies.What is perhaps most worrying for the PLP is the drop in its support among black voters, from 52 percent in April to 39 percent now. The good news is that they have not gone to the OBA, which saw its share of black support at 16 percent, compared to 18 percent in April for the combined UBP/BDA. What this means is that, like the electorate as a whole, some 38 percent, or almost four in ten, of black voters are undecided and “in play”, up from 23 percent in April.For the rump of the UBP, this poll will make depressing reading as its support has dropped to just two percent of voters. While it could conceivably attract some undecided voters back to the fold, the more plausible interpretation is that the UBP is finished as a national party. In fact, the numbers are so poor that it is hard to see how Leader Kim Swan and MP Charlie Swan could retain their seats if an election were held tomorrow, although their popularity at the constituency level could still play a part.It is normal in Bermuda politics to have a large number of people say they are undecided until an election is called. But the current state of flux in politics makes the next election anyone’s to win.