David Sullivan’s announcement that he will run as an Independent candidate in the Devonshire South Central by-election should be welcomed.First, democracy is well served when people run for office and when the public is given a wide variety of choice. It’s not entirely clear whether Mr Sullivan is running for the ex-United Bermuda Party grouping led by Kim Swan or as a pure Independent.Either way, Mr Sullivan clearly disagreed with the decision of much of the UBP leadership to form the One Bermuda Alliance. As such, his candidacy will be a test of whether Mr Swan’s group has any viability outside of his and Charlie Swan’s seat. If Mr Sullivan wins the by-election, or gets a respectable share of the vote, this would show there is still life in the UBP.Ironically, Mr Sullivan’s candidacy could be very good for the OBA for two reasons. First, the longer the UBP continues in some form, the harder it is for critics of the OBA to claim that it is old wine in new bottles. Secondly, if OBA leader Craig Cannonier wins the by-election handily, it will firmly establish the OBA as the only serious Opposition party. Of course, a close vote, or defeat, would throw the OBA into disarray, especially as it would have no leader, since the Opposition Leader must sit in the House of Assembly.Mr Sullivan is basically counting on a protest vote by those who resent having a new party dictate who will represent them. The success or failure of Mr Cannonier now depends on him canvassing and covering every square inch of the constituency. For the governing Progressive Labour Party, a split vote is the optimal result. Unlikely to win the by-election, an evenly split vote would show that the OBA is still unprepared to be a government in waiting.A split vote would encourage Premier Paula Cox to proceed with a Christmas election, working on the assumption that a divided Opposition would be unable to mount an effective challenge to the PLP. But if one party, especially the OBA, was to win, this would send a clear message that the OBA is strong and will be a difficult general election opponent.