First glance at the Census
A census is designed to give a snapshot of a country at a given time. As such, it is helpful as a means of seeing where a country stands, and identifying or confirming trends and changes over time. While a Census must normally last ten years, it becomes less useful as time goes on.The Bermuda Census is no different. The fact the preliminary results are only being released now, about 17 months after the official Census date, means it is already out of date. Nonetheless, the statistics confirm a number of trends that are important to Bermuda, and having accurate statistical data will help in planning and policy making.The primary goal of the Census is to fix the size of the population, which is critical for almost any national planning and decision-making. Bermuda’s population has remained virtually static since 2000, rising by three percent, which is considered to be weak. This may be partly because of emigration by Bermudians and non-Bermudians as the recession began to bite last May, along with the longer term trend of the Island’s low birth rate.That is part of the most significant trend Bermuda is facing. Bermuda is ageing rapidly, with the proportion of those aged 45 or more now constituting 44 percent of the population, a nine percent rise since 2000. The declining birth rate has a lot to do with that, but the onward march of baby boomers towards retirement age and advances in health care which are extending life expectancy are the major contributing factors.None of this is any secret, but the numbers show the true extent and ramifications of the trend. In the long term it means people of working age will be supporting more and more senior citizens, along with teenagers and children. This means more and more of people’s incomes and Government revenues will be devoted to pensions, health care and so forth. This was already a daunting proposition and the recession makes it all the more so.And it is clear, even from the preliminary data that Bermuda was in recession in May, 2010, when six percent of the population was judged to be unemployed. It is worth noting that the unemployment rate among men was seven percent. There is no doubt that the recession is worse now and the level of unemployment therefore higher too.It is also notable that Bermuda is now more diverse. The number of people identifying themselves as being of more than one race rose to eight percent, with about half identifying themselves as being of black and white descent. This is a positive thing for race relations.The number of Asians in the population doubled between 2000 and 2010 to four percent. This may seem an insignificant number, but it has already given rise to worrying acts of xenophobia and may make Bermuda’s already combustible racial make-up even more complicated. It may be that this number has since declined as a result of the recession. But Bermuda needs to find ways to celebrate its growing diversity and to counter xenophobes.In part this xenophobia is due to fears of displacement, and the Census shows that while the Bermudian population remained stable, both in total numbers and as a proportion of the population, this is entirely because of the large and growing number of Bermudians in the over-45 bracket.The number of Bermudians declined in every age category from 44 down, and this will have long term ramifications for the Island.The Census provides a great deal for Bermuda to think about and it is important that the full results be released as soon as possible. Only having the full numbers to hand will enable the community to make good decisions about the future.