Watershed election
The long wait is over and the general election is finally underway.It is not hyperbole to say that this election is critically important to Bermuda’s future.Never before has a free election been held against a backdrop of such severe economic problems.Not since the Great Depression have so many Bermudians been unemployed or underemployed, and the Government then was very different. So this could be a watershed election for Bermuda.Because there has been such a long run-up to the actual campaign, the likely directions of the two main parties’ campaigns are already pretty clear.The main issue, and almost the only issue, is the economy and jobs. Crime, education, healthcare and other issues will have a place, but everything comes back to the economy in the end. The party which is best able to persuade the electorate it is best fitted to bring the Island out of recession is likely to be the party that wins the election.The governing Progressive Labour Party is trying to make a dual case. First, it is arguing that the recovery has begun, although it is fragile. Second, it is arguing that it is the party of compassion the people’s party which can best care for people who are still struggling.The PLP will also make the subtle and not so subtle case that it is the party of the black majority, and that a vote for the Opposition is a vote to bring back the old white establishment.The One Bermuda Alliance will argue that the PLP has had four years to bring the Island out of recession and has failed, and that its policies may in fact have made a bad situation worse.It will argue that its leadership’s business experience and management skills mean it can bring back jobs while restoring the public finances, which the Government has driven into levels of debt that were unimaginable just five years ago.It will also argue that it will preserve the safety net while applying the best social service of all jobs and a growing economy.Aside from the issues, the OBA will also have to tackle the perception that it is simply the United Bermuda Party with a new coat of paint.In this, it is helped and hindered by the fact that the UBP remains extant with former leader Kim Swan and Charlie Swan determined to defend their seats against both the OBA and the PLP.This is a help to the OBA because it can hardly be the UBP when the UBP still exists, but a danger because a split vote, especially in Kim Swan’s St George’s West constituency, could hand a seat to the PLP that the OBA badly needs to get to the magic number of 19.The PLP has two problems. The first is the problem of running on its record when its record is dominated by the recession. The second is the ongoing rumours of a challenge to Premier Paula Cox. Ms Cox brushed these reports off yesterday, but there are consistent rumours of a coup even if the PLP retains power.Although the OBA now claims an 11-point lead in the polls and has held a consistent lead in the polls for months now, it is likely that the election will be very close.In any event, the fact the PLP has more safe seats than the OBA means that it does not have to do as well in the popular vote to retain power.Aside from either party gaining a clear majority of votes and seats, the possibility that it could be a tie or that the OBA could win a majority of the popular vote but a minority of seats in the House of Assembly remains very real.The hope here is that this election will be fought cleanly and on the issues. The records of the parties and the candidates need to be scrutinised, as do the policies that each party proposes. But the kind of negative campaigning, particularly by the PLP, in the 2007 election did great harm to the psyche of Bermuda and should not be repeated.Bermuda has a chance to be an example to the world in how an election should be fought. It should take it.