The polls published by The Royal Gazette yesterday and today show the One Bermuda Alliance leading the Progressive Labour Party by 13 percentage points.Despite that strong lead, it is very difficult to predict a winner of this election. What the poll does suggest is that voting intentions are very closely tied to perceptions of the state of the economy and which party is judged to be best able to bring about a recovery.Forty three percent of voters say they will vote for the OBA and 30 percent say they will vote for the incumbent PLP. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country stands at 50 percent while those who say they are confident about the future number 19 percent. Confidence in the Island’s economic direction was just 16 percent while dissatisfaction stood at 56 percent.Perhaps more importantly, 46 percent believed the OBA was the party best able to bring the Island out of recession compared to 25 percent for the PLP. That statistic is close to voting intentions, and reflects the fact that the economy is the most important issue confronting voters something 69 percent of respondents said.This poll took place during the controversy over the secret report, and that seems to have damaged the OBA, but not enough to push voters into the PLP voting column. Instead, the number of people who said they were undecided rose from 13 percent in September to 25 percent now. But much of that decline came from a drop in PLP support from 38 percent to 30 percent.In broad terms, what this means is that neither party has entirely closed the deal and what they do in the next couple of days could be crucial. In terms of the popular vote, the PLP has a harder task as it must convince more than 20 percent of voters to support it in order to get to more than half the popular vote, compared to the OBA which only needs seven percent.In most countries, a 13 percent lead the week before an election, a dire economy and a massive lack of confidence in the country’s direction would almost guarantee a change of government.But the large number of people who say they are undecided this late in the campaign is one reason why the election is hard to predict. The other is the make-up of Bermuda’s constituencies, which gives the PLP an edge in terms of safe seats. The PLP can, conservatively, count on around 13 seats that are virtually impossible to lose. By comparison, the OBA has perhaps seven it can absolutely count on. No matter how you count it, the OBA has a harder task to win the 19 seats needed for an absolute majority than the PLP.This opens up a number of possibilities on election night. Either party could win an absolute majority of the vote and 19 or more seats. If that’s the case, it will mark a remarkable comeback by the PLP in a dismal economic period or an extraordinary accomplishment by the OBA, which barely existed 18 months ago.It is also possible that either party, although it is unlikely to be the OBA, will win a majority of seats and a minority of the popular vote. That would mean that it would win the election, but with a hollow mandate. It would also spur a demand for fresh constitutional reform to end a system which is stacked in the PLP’s favour.It is not impossible that an Independent candidate could win a seat, and hold the balance of power in an 18-17 House. Arguably, it could keep both parties honest, but it would cause some uncertainty in a difficult period when stability is critical.Finally, there could be an 18-18 tie. This is the worst constitutional problem. Since whichever party ends up putting forward a Speaker will immediately go into Opposition, neither party will put a Speaker up, which would result in deadlock, with neither party able to form a government, unless someone crossed the floor. Without that happening, another general election will be needed in short order.Just which way the “undecideds” go will decide this election. They must decide if they wish to stick with the PLP, despite its poor economic management of the last five years, or go with the relatively untried OBA.