Bermuda’s political and business leaders have, by and large, resisted the temptation to issue any premature declarations of victory over the seemingly intractable recessionary conditions which have hobbled the economy since 2008.

Despite the emergence of what the Premier has called “green shoots” in Bermuda’s economy in recent months, no one is raising false hopes or encouraging exaggerated expectations about an imminent recovery.

The public mood continues to mirror the circumspect view from the top.

Flat wages, rising living costs and still high levels of unemployment and underemployment have come to temper the average Bermudian’s reaction to the positive economic indicators which have been sporadically reported since the start of the year.

Few are convinced that the Island has rounded the corner yet, fewer still believe a case can be made for anything but the most cautious optimism on the economic front.

The very best which can be said is that we’re perhaps approaching the end of the beginning of Bermuda’s longest and most wrenching period of economic readjustment in modern times.

As statistician Cordell Riley deadpanned in a public address at the Bermuda College this week, the local economy could finally bottom out in 2015 — but still shrink by another 700 jobs before the Island finally starts into recovery in 2016.

Only if economic conditions finally do begin to stabilise next year will we be able to say with any certainty that we actually have embarked on the beginning of the end of Bermuda’s Great Recession.

While it’s clearly not time to crack open the Champagne, perhaps we might want to start thinking about putting a few bottles on ice.

International credit-ratings agency Standard & Poor’s this week issued a guardedly positive, if not actually bullish, prognosis for our short to midterm prospects.

Revising its outlook for the Island to “stable”, up from the “negative”, the international financial services company said that the revised forecast “reflects our expectations that positive economic growth will return in the next two years, fiscal deficits will get smaller as revenue growth returns, and Government debt will stabilise at slightly more than 10 per cent of projected GDP”.

S&P analysts added that should the combination of Government cost-cutting measures and revenue-raising initiatives — including securing the rights to host the 2017 America’s Cup as well as its qualifying regattas — “place Bermuda back on a higher plane that resulted in a steady decline in the Government debt burden, we could consider a positive outlook revision or upgrade”.

In a televised speech this week, the Premier said that while the cumulative effects of the Island’s seven-year economic contraction could not all be corrected overnight, renewed investor confidence in Bermuda would soon translate “into jobs, career and business opportunities for Bermudians”. He emphasised that reducing Government spending levels to staunch the flow of public sector red ink had to be as much of a priority as attracting new private sector investment to Bermuda.

For there is simply no way to create a viable framework to boost Bermuda’s competitiveness and ensure long-term, sustainable economic growth unless we simultaneously attempt to balance our books.

“By the end of this fiscal year we will have reduced Government’s annual deficit by approximately $110 million,” said the Premier. “We will have moved the Current Account, before debt service payments, to a surplus position — the first time in more than seven years.

“The steps we’ve taken so far are steps to grow the economy — cutting red tape, passing legislation, adjusting regulations and reaching beyond our shores to create new channels of investment in Bermuda; investment that builds hotels, creates new businesses and sets the stage for making the America’s Cup in Bermuda one of the greatest sporting spectacles of all time.”

No, the time is not yet at hand to declare victory.

But critics who have despaired of the frustratingly slow pace of recovery, who questioned whether Bermuda could indeed retrench and relaunch an economic model which appeared to be all but irreparable, might want to reconsider their Worst Case Scenarios for the Island.

For the beginning of the end of our protracted economic slump may at last be in sight.