A leading ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform, Xeneta, is warning that ripple effects of strike action at ports on the US East and Gulf coasts will cause severe supply-chain disruption into 2025.

The looming strike appears to be increasingly inevitable, and industry publication The Maritime Executive said the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), representative of the management groups, has filed a grievance against the International Longshoremen’s Association seeking to order them back to the negotiating table.

The prevailing view is that it is likely too late to head off the walkout at 36 ports on the US East and Gulf Coast.

Reuters is reporting on a JPMorgan analysis projecting that a strike could cost the US economy $5 billion daily.

Logistics Manager said: “Reports claim that union workers at ports on the East and Gulf coasts earn a base wage of $39 per hour after six years on the job, compared to unionised workers on the West Coast, who currently earn $54.85 per hour — a sum that is set to rise to $60.85, excluding overtime and benefits, in 2027.”

ILA wage-scale delegates “unanimously” called for a coast-wide strike at ports from Maine to Texas.

The USMX issued a statement saying: “Despite additional attempts by USMX to engage with the ILA and resume bargaining, we have been unable to schedule a meeting to continue negotiations on a new Master Contract.”

The Indian Freight company, AR Overseas, is already warning global clients of a potential disruption at US ports that it said may have significant consequences on global supply chains and logistics operations.

It listed the impacted ports of New York, Savannah, Houston, Miami and New Orleans.

It told clients by e-mail: “These ports handle 41 per cent of US port volume, and any closure is expected to have severe repercussions for both inbound and outbound shipments.”

The statement added: “Should the strike proceed, businesses must prepare for potential delays, increased costs and possible inventory disruptions.”

Key concerns it cited included:

• Supply-chain delays: importing and exporting materials could face significant delays

• Increased costs: higher shipping, warehousing and handling costs are likely to result from the disruption

• Rising consumer prices: costs could trickle down to consumers, particularly for industries reliant on imported raw materials and goods

• Product shortages: sectors such as retail, manufacturing and food production may face inventory shortages, especially if the strike extends beyond a few days

Ocean supply chains have already been badly disrupted during 2024 owing to conflict in the Red Sea, drought in the Panama Canal and the Baltimore bridge collapse.

Data from Oslo-based Xeneta’s ocean and air freight intelligence platform shows average spot freight rates on the trade from the Far East to US East Coast spiked more than 300 per cent between December 1, 2023 and early July this year.

Some 36 ports are preparing for a complete stoppage if a new deal cannot be agreed before the September 30 deadline.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said: “There are ships on the ocean right now carrying billions of dollars of cargo heading to ports on the US East and Gulf Coast.

“These ships cannot turn back and they cannot realistically reroute to the US West Coast. Some may divert to ports in Canada or even Mexico East Coast, but the vast majority will simply wait outside affected ports until the workers return.

“The consequences will be severe, not only through congestion at US ports, but importantly these ships will be delayed returning to the Far East for the next voyage.

“A strike lasting just one week will impact schedules for ships leaving the Far East on voyages to the US in late December and throughout January.”

Mr Sand said: “More than 40 per cent of total containerised goods enter the US through ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast, so the stakes could not be higher.

“To stop trade entering the US on such a large scale, even for short periods of time, is highly damaging to the economy, so government intervention will be needed to bring the matter to a resolution for the good of the nation.

“Last week, 177 trade associations called for an immediate resumption of negotiations because they recognise the extremely serious consequences of strike action on the US economy.

“Government intervention should be seen as a strength in the system, because it will prevent a dispute between a smaller group of interests — whether that is dock-workers or port terminal owners — from significantly impacting the wealth of the entire nation.

“If the parties cannot solve the dispute themselves, then someone needs to solve it for them because closing the US East and Gulf coasts to trade for a prolonged period of time would be toxic for supply chains and the economy.”

The White House earlier indicated that President Joe Biden would not get involved.