Tropical Storm Philippe is forecast to pass the island as a Category 1 hurricane towards the end of this week.

The Bermuda Weather Service’s 6pm advisory has the storm positioned 1,036 miles to the south-southeast of the island, moving west-northwest at 7mph.

The closest point of approach to the island within the next three days is expected to be 402 miles to the south at 6pm on Thursday.

It has winds of 52mph gusting at 63mph.

In its long-term forecast [Thursday and Friday], the BWS said: “The latest UK model has a weaker tropical cyclone, but due to this fact the upper-level steering winds are not as effective at keeping Philippe well clear of the area, and in fact draw this system into our local area …

“Strong easterly flow is likely to develop with a few showers arriving into the local area. Southeasterly swells will begin to build rough then very rough. Given the above, there is moderate to high confidence in a small-craft warning issuance due to strengthening winds and building seas.

“However, given some downstream uncertainties in Philippe’s path, tropical watches/warnings may also need to be considered.”

The BWS said for the short-term forecast: “Largely dry weather and partly cloudy skies can be expected over the next day or two as the pressure slackens between high pressure building towards the north-west and Tropical Storm Philippe to the distant south.

“However, areas of convergence and tropical moisture may bring a few passing showers as winds gradually veer easterly. Inclement weather possibly looms later in the week as Philippe approaches from the south.”

The National Hurricane Centre said a tropical storm warning has been issued for Antigua and that the storm is likely to bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of the Leeward Islands overnight.

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