Hurricane Tammy is expected to pass near to Bermuda on Saturday, the latest Bermuda Weather Service graphic showed.

The image suggested the Category 1 system is likely to weaken to a strong tropical storm before it goes by the island on Saturday morning, when winds are expected to be about 52mph.

A small craft warning will be in effect from tomorrow afternoon through to Wednesday night.

Tammy was about 720 miles south of the island at midday and was expected to drift north-northeast.

It had 80mph winds gusting at 98mph.

But the system was predicted to start turning northwards on Wednesday, then track towards the west on Thursday.

Forecasters expected Tammy to weaken to a tropical storm by then, when it will still be some distance from landfall.

According to the BWS, the hurricane’s closest point of approach in the next three days will be on Thursday at noon, when it is tracked to be about 410 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

Forecasters said this morning: “The night was rather quiet and dry as fair weather continued to dominate across the area. A few showers during the morning are possible as a weak cold front moves in from the west. In the wake of the frontal passage, conditions return to the dry theme as high pressure builds in from the west with cooler and settled weather.

“Satellite imagery shows bands of mainly high clouds moving across the island from the southwest with a few spots of low clouds mixed in between.

“Winds were moderate 14 to 21mph west southwesterly through the night and gradually notched towards the west and became moderate to strong during the morning but will ease back to a moderate state and veer towards the north-northwest by evening. Moderate to rough seas will abate moderate by this afternoon …

“North-northeast winds 14 to 21mph increase 17 to 23mph then veer northeast 23 to 29mph by Tuesday evening. Winds ramp up further on Wednesday in the 23 to 35mph range. Moderate seas build moderate to rough on Tuesday then rough on Wednesday. Large swells and rip currents will begin to develop during the forecast period.”

The US National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Tammy. It said this morning it had sustained winds of 80mph and is moving north at 10mph.

The 2023 hurricane season has been forecast to be busier than usual as warmer-than-normal water temperatures offset El Niño, a weather phenomenon known to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated in its mid-season forecast that the season could include 14 to 21 named storms, of which between six and 11 could reach hurricane strength.

Of those storms, it is estimated that two to five could become major hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength with winds of 111mph or greater.

So far this season, the Atlantic has recorded 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes. The season concludes at the end of November.

• UPDATE: This article has been updated with the latest information from the Bermuda Weather Service.