The Bermuda Environmental Sustainability Taskforce (BEST) has read and reviewed the complete draft (v2) of the “Study of Bermuda's Shipping Channels to Accommodate Larger Cruise Ships” (referred to as “Channel Study”). It has prepared an analysis and response, this part of which appeared in Monday's Royal Gazette. Here is the concluding part:AlternativesIncrease Air ArrivalsThe more the numbers coming out of the study are analysed, the less viable excavating Bermuda's shipping channels appears, and the more important it therefore becomes to consider sustainable alternatives. An enlightening statistic is that each cruise ship passenger arriving in Bermuda in 2010 had a direct economic impact value of around $189. In comparison, the average expenditure by leisure visitors arriving by air was $1,300 per person during summer 2010 and a similar amount in the first quarter of this year. This difference is not surprising given that the largest component of land-based visitor expenditure is accommodation (51.7% of all monies spent by tourists in Q1 2011) while the second largest component is spent on meals and beverages in restaurants (24.7% of monies spent by tourists in Q1 2011), neither of which typically apply to cruise ship passengers for which accommodation and meals are already included on-board the ship. Importantly, it is this expenditure on accommodation and in restaurants that supports our 2,297 hotel industry workers and many others in the hospitality industry. Furthermore, one of the reasons cited for carrying out the Shipping Channel study was to address the concentration of tourist activity in the West End. A further advantage of land-based visitors is the diffusion of both economic and environmental impacts on a scale greater than could ever be possible through cruise ship activity, even if all three ports could be used.The Bermuda Shipping Channel Study makes a number of passenger and direct economic impact projections based on the twelve channel modification scenarios considered. The scenario resulting in the highest revenue increase is Scenario 12, which involves expanding all channels to a state in which they can safely accommodate Post-Panamax Tier 2 ships. This scenario anticipates an additional 315,842 annual cruise passengers and an additional direct economic impact of $79.8m by 2021 over the baseline scenario of making no changes to the current channels. This economic impact figure is worked from a $197.30 expenditure per head (the assumed average expenditure for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons notably already higher than the 2010 average expenditure and therefore potentially optimistic) and applies a 2.5% annual increase intended to account for inflation and increased port fees. Assuming that the average spend per head of land-based tourists increases by the same proportion, which is not unlikely, we would require an additional 47,957 air arrival passengers in 2021 to have the same economic impact as the 315,842 additional cruise ship passengers (before even accounting for the $312m additional cost required to get those additional cruise ship passengers here). Air arrivals in 2010 were 232,262 and had fallen for three consecutive years down from 305,548 in 2007. In other words, simply increasing our air arrival numbers back to 2007 levels should have an even greater economic impact than spending $312m to widen the channels, plus upgrade costs to St George's and Hamilton docks, plus any additional contingency costs, plus the enormous environmental costs of altering our shipping channels.According to the Bermuda Department of Tourism Air Arrivals Flash Report (2010), 60 percent of our air arrivals are repeat visitors and 89 percent would recommend Bermuda to a friend. Of some concern, however, the number of air visitors finding that Bermuda exceeded their expectations in terms of value for money dropped significantly, from 41 percent to eight percent between Summer 2009 and Summer 2010 alone. It is likely that some investigation into the reasons for this decline and action to improve our perceived value-for-money ratings, along with other initiatives to increase land-based visitors, could have a significantly greater benefit than any channel modifications. In addition, it would be useful to consider the potential conflicts between cruise and land-based visitors and the effects that these may have on visitor experiences before making any decisions to increase the lower-spending segment of our visitor population.In order to attract land-based visitors and improve our value-for-money ratings, it is essential to differentiate ourselves from other, more affordable, destinations. In order to achieve this, BEST firmly believes that our specific advantages must be recognised, preserved, and developed into a unique tourism product, or products, ideally as part of a comprehensive tourism plan. Jessie Moniz' recent discussion in The Bottom Line magazine around targeting niche areas of the tourism market, including but certainly not limited to forts and bird watching, reflects this view and, importantly, actively marketing to such tourists can help to minimise the effects of seasonality and reduce pressure on “honeypot” areas such as Dockyard and Horseshoe Bay, with the added benefit of dispersing economic and environmental impacts more widely across the island.Bermuda's success as a tourist destination has traditionally stemmed from its breathtaking natural beauty and rich cultural heritage and, from reading online destination reviews, it would appear that these continue to be the key elements of positive tourist experiences. Such feedback from our visitors offers valuable insight into how best to market and improve our tourism product, and we must ultimately be mindful that, in addition to eroding the natural beauty that draws so many people to our shores, continued development, if left unchecked, may ultimately destroy the primary competitive advantage that we have always enjoyed. Given the potential for large-scale destruction and damage to our coral reefs, island reserves, turtle grass beds and the marine life that they support, the proposed development of widening of the shipping channels is no exception.Improve Public TransportationAs mentioned in the Introduction to the Channel Study, “The concentration of cruise ships docking at the West End has … taxed the ability of the public transportation system to efficiently move passengers and crew to Hamilton and St George's.” The problems associated with transporting the large numbers of cruise ship passengers from Dockyard to other parts of the island have been well-publicised. Rather than blaming the concentration of passengers in Dockyard, however, we should be actively looking to address the inadequacies of our current transportation system in order to better disperse these passengers, and any positive economic impacts they may have, across the island. Ultimately, it is likely that the benefits of improving public transportation will far outweigh the costs associated with doing so (and that these costs will also be undoubtedly lower than the costs required to bring larger cruise ships into either Hamilton or St George's).Successfully addressing public transport issues should not only help to disperse the economic impact of cruise passengers to other areas of the island (including Hamilton and the Town of St George), but should also greatly improve cruise visitor experiences, helping to maintain passenger visits, benefit locals through improved public transportation and could even help to reduce the number of cars on the road as more people are likely to opt to use public transport if the system is improved. Furthermore, improving public transportation may be important to maintaining, let alone increasing, the number of cruise visitors now disembarking in Dockyard (some estimated 335,000 this year). Complaints by tourists regarding transportation problems this summer have been well-publicised and it has been hypothesised that such problems may have played some role in Carnival's decision to cut the number of voyages to Bermuda from the 12 originally approved to just one next year .Solutions for overcoming the recently experienced public transportation issues have been made in several Letters to the Editor since the problems first began and seemingly practical suggestions include:· Bringing mechanical engineers from the German group MAN (who supplied our buses) and from the company that supplied our ferries to the island to train locals. This should help us to get the estimated 60 buses that are currently out of order running again and should help ensure that all buses and ferries can be kept in useful service.· Re-introducing the Dockyard-St George's ferry route when cruise ships are in port· Using locally-based tenders to run passengers from Dockyard to St George's and Hamilton· Introducing special express bus services running directly from Dockyard to major points of interest (including Hamilton and St George's) with no stops in-between· Running certain bus and ferry services later into the evening when cruise ships are in port. This should encourage cruise ship passengers to sample local nightlife outside of Dockyard, particularly given that the West End continues to be notoriously under-serviced by taxis.Increase Cruise Passenger SpendingA third alternative to increase the economic benefit of cruise ship passengers to Bermuda without spending a fortune modifying the channels is to increase passenger spending while onshore. This can be aided, for example, by targeting smaller luxury lines with fewer amenities on-board, by seriously considering Tony Brannon's advice to revert to the former cruise ship policy that required all on-board shows to close while in port, and by exploring the benefits of better promoting “cruise and stay” holidays for Bermuda. Many of the smaller cruise ships servicing the North American market tend to be luxury ships on worldwide itineraries. Although each ship is therefore likely to visit the island only occasionally, a steady stream of occasional callers can have a sizeable economic impact and, given the luxury nature of such ships and that smaller ships are likely to have fewer amenities on-board, each passenger is likely to spend a greater amount of dollars onshore. Similarly, requiring on-board shows to close while in port would help to get visitors off the ship and into local establishments and promoting “cruise and stay” holidays would have the potential to benefit the local hotel industry and restaurants alike.Formal and tightly-worded contracts, well in advance of each cruise ship season, could enable greater certainty in the short-term (one of the reasons Carnival was able to pull out so easily, for example, was because the agreement was made over e-mail and no legal document existed) and passenger feedback should continually be sought and used to identify and make cost-effective changes to enhance visitor experiences and maintain Bermuda as a visitor destination of choice. Improving the public transportation network could also help to increase cruise visitor spending as a passenger is much more likely to eat in a local restaurant if they find themselves far from the port but know that they can safely and easily return later to the ship. Ultimately, Bermuda will enjoy the greatest economic impact if we can get cruise passengers off the ships and into local establishments, whether before, during, or after their cruise.In addition to taking action to increase per capita passenger spending, we should be working tirelessly to encourage those ships that can access our ports to visit Bermuda as often as possible and to remain in port for several days. Importantly, this will involve maintaining an open dialogue with cruise line representatives and working with them to ensure that Bermuda remains a viable destination on their itineraries. We must not forget that the cruise industry is a big business and that Bermuda is competing with a multitude of other destinations in what is an internationally-competitive marketplace. While our proximity to the US East Coast is a huge advantage, at the end of the day, cruise lines are only going to visit if is profitable for them to do so (and, moreover, if it is more profitable for them to do so than scheduling these visits to other destinations). Many have stipulated that Bermuda's current restrictions banning on-board gambling while in port is the underlying cause behind the recent decisions by various cruise lines to cut their number of services to the Island, and that allowing cruise ships to open their casinos between the hours of 10pm and 5am would not significantly reduce passenger spending onshore. While many other destinations also ban on-board gambling while in port, Bermuda is unique in that, due to our isolation, ships spend several days in port and therefore do not find themselves on international waters each night.It is plausible that reduced revenues from gaming, in conjunction with what are the highest recorded levels of cruise passenger taxes in the world, are causing revenues for cruise lines to be lower in Bermuda than in other destinations. If you add to this the recent transportation complaints and drop in perceived visitor value for money, it is perhaps unsurprising that Bermuda may no longer be viewed as the cruise destination of choice. While it is vital to ensure that Bermuda remains a profitable destination for cruise lines by listening to their feedback and working with them to enhance their own profitability, it is equally important to ensure that cruise line visits remain profitable for Bermuda (and that these profits outweigh any environmental and infrastructure costs).ConclusionsIn conclusion, undertaking the work and investment required to widen Bermuda's shipping channels purely in the interests of accommodating larger cruise ships is likely to be economically and environmentally disastrous. Given the huge uncertainties pertaining to both the Bermuda cruise market and the future of cruising in general, it seems impossible to even guarantee that the required investment to widen the channels to Post-Panamax Tier 2 standard could even be recouped at this stage. Recent decisions made by various cruise lines to cut their number of visits to Bermuda in 2012 and 2013 highlight this vulnerability to wider market forces. Furthermore, as large cruise ship sizes continue to grow, it is very plausible that Bermuda will find itself in a similar situation to the one we find ourselves now well before even the construction costs of widening the channels (let alone making any necessary dock upgrades) can be paid down using the projected additional revenues from the increased cruise traffic.While suggestions have been made to consider alternative docking locations (notably the proposal to build a cruise ship berth off the north shore in St George's), such proposals would also require large-scale dredging and construction with a similar price tag (an estimated $53m in the case of the proposed cruise ship berth off the north shore compared to $54.7m to $56.7m to widen Town Cut to 155m). For many of the same reasons discussed in the preceding sections, it would seem that exploring such avenues, at least in the near- to midterm, would be misguided. Instead, the Bermuda Environmental and Sustainability Taskforce (BEST) strongly believes that efforts and expenditure to improve our tourism sector would be far better spent on less capital-intensive, smaller-scale, cost-effective initiatives aimed at:· Increasing land-based visitor arrivals to better diffuse the impacts of tourism throughout the Island and to take advantage of their significantly higher expenditure per head· Improving our transportation network to better service current cruise passengers (as well as land-based visitors and locals) and to diffuse their impacts across the Island· Developing initiatives to increase per capita cruise ship passenger spending onshore· Proactively approaching all cruise lines with ships that do meet current size restrictions, encouraging them to give Bermuda a prominent place on their itineraries, and working with them to ensure that Bermuda remains a profitable destination for both the cruise line and the Island alike.