In previous articles we explained the shift in our economy from Tourism to International Business and the requirement of foreign workers to supplement our National Workforce in order to service our economy. Another more alarming reason why we need the foreign factor in our economy and workforce is that the Bermudian population is shrinking.Bermudians seem to be sliding towards national extinction. The Bermudian birth rate is so low that the number of Bermudians in Bermuda is shrinking.Bermudians, generally, have not woken up to what this means and how it affects their day-to-day lives. Bermudians must think about the consequences this declining birth rate has on Bermuda’s existing economy, Bermuda’s social setting, and Bermuda’s need to think and act strategically if Bermuda is to remain a stable society with an economy that will continue to deliver economic activity that creates the level for Bermudian employment, rental income and enough Government revenue to provide the services to the public and reduce public debt.Starting with Census 1991, the Bermuda Census finally began counting the number of Bermudians. Starting in 2006, the Registrar of Births finally began counting the number of Bermudian babies born in each year:* 1991 — 46,115 Bermudians* 2000 — 48,746 Bermudians2,631 added Bermudians. An average of 293 Bermudians added in each of those nine years.* 2000 — 48,746 Bermudians* 2010 — 50,565 Bermudians1,819 added Bermudians. An average of 182 Bermudians added in each of those ten years.Clearly, the three Censuses (1991, 2000, 2010), show that Bermudian birth rates are falling. Now add this second set of facts about Bermudian births:* 2006 — 798 babies born in Bermuda — 572 were Bermudian (72 percent)* 2007 — 859 babies born in Bermuda — 632 were Bermudian (74 percent)* 2008 — 821 babies born in Bermuda — 592 were Bermudian (72 percent)* 2009 — 819 babies born in Bermuda — 597 were Bermudian (73 percent)* 2010 — 768 babies born in Bermuda — 581 were Bermudian (76 percent)When Bermudian deaths are compared to Bermudian births, these revealing facts emerge about where our population is headed:* 2006 — Bermudian births 572 — Bermudian deaths 458.Bermudian population increase 114.* 2007 — Bermudian births 632 — Bermudian deaths 468.Bermudian population increase 164.* 2008 — Bermudian births 592 — Bermudian deaths 443.Bermudian population increase 149.* 2009 — Bermudian births 597 — Bermudian deaths 470.Bermudian population increase 127.* 2010 — Bermudian births 581 — Bermudian deaths 475.Bermudian population increase 106.These numbers show that from 2006-2010, the Bermudian component in our Island population grew at an average natural increase of 132 per year. This supports the Census figures of an average 182 Bermudians added per year between 2000 and 2010.In 1981, Director of Health Services and Chief Medical Officer Dr. Simon Frazer wrote: “We stand today at a population of 54,670 with an annual increase of births over deaths of almost 500 ...”(**). Compare that “almost 500” of 1981 with the 106 thirty years later, in 2010 and that’s an 80 percent drop-off in “annual increase”.Between 2000 and 2008, Bermuda’s National workforce grew from 38,017 (2000) to 40,213 (2008). This meant an average 274 workers added per year. But there were only 182 new (additional) Bermudians available in each year between 2000 and 2008. How could this growth happen? Obviously, it could only do so by importing people.However, between 2000 and 2008, Bermudian worker participation in Bermuda’s growing economy actually fell from 28,881 (2000) to 27,180 (2008). This was a loss of 1,701 Bermudian workers for an average annual loss of 212 Bermudian workers per year between 2000 and 2008. Between 2008 and 2011, the Bermudian worker count fell to 26,187; with another 993 Bermudian workers disappearing, for an average annual loss, for those three years, of 331 per year. The 2000 to 2011 annual loss worked out to an average loss of 245 Bermudian workers per year.Taking everything that we now know, for the eleven years between 2000 and 2011, this is the annual national manpower available:* Bermudian birth rate adds around 182 Bermudians per year* Unexplained loss of Bermudian workers is around 245 per year* Annual change in the availability of Bermudian workers is negative 63With this negative growth figure of 63 we need to import people.So the Bermudian component in Bermuda’s workforce is actually shrinking. This is Bermuda’s real and critically important national manpower situation. It is unique. It is important. It is challenging.The truth is that even if Bermuda’s economy stands still and there is zero growth (therefore no further economic decline), Bermuda must still regularly and routinely import people to work in Bermuda because Bermuda and its economy is actually and steadily losing Bermudian workers. Therefore, Bermuda is uniquely and especially reliant on imported labour for both the Tourism and International Business industries.At present levels of employment, if Bermuda does not import additional foreign workers, Bermuda’s economy will decline. The decline will continue until the economy shrinks to the level where it is sustained by Bermudians — and only Bermudians. That all-Bermudian level will be some National Workforce number well under 26,000 workers. That is where Bermuda’s economy was 44 years ago in 1968 which also included foreign workers.As Bermuda’s national workforce shrinks, average employment income will shrink. In 2010, average employment income was $80,996(*). Continued shrinkage will cut that income in half or even much lower.This worker import fact may be strange and to some, it may even be unpleasant. However, this fact is the consequence of Bermuda’s falling birth rate and the unexplained but consistent pattern of loss of Bermudian workers. Bermuda’s falling birth rate also greatly magnifies the problem of supporting, caring for, and paying for Bermuda’s expanding pool of retired and non-working seniors.Why are Bermudian workers disappearing from Bermuda’s National Workforce? No one, not even Government, knows. It could be due to Bermudians moving abroad, retiring or being incarcerated.Bermuda’s complex, sophisticated, and unique economy needs to be understood and then handled with complete care. On first approach, decisions that may seem logical and obvious can easily produce an opposite, undesirable and long-lasting damaging and possibly irreparable consequence. We believe that we have already seen that kind of decision making with the term limits and the 2010/11 decision to suddenly raise the cap on payroll tax and not being responsive to executing the necessary changes that would have maintained a reasonable level of economic activity.Policies that cause any kind of work permit reductions will result in opposite and damaging actions that create undesirable consequences. Those undesirable consequences are occurring now.Bermuda and Bermudians need to understand how Bermuda’s complex, sophisticated and unique economy actually functions and why some necessary national policies may, at first glance, seem to act against populist Bermudian interests — but are, in fact, in the best interests of all Bermudians.Bermuda must actively and aggressively re-engage in re-importing people that will assist with our achieving a reasonable and rational level of economic activity.Get involved and send us your thoughts. This continues to be a collective effort by all Bermudians and we need your continued support, comments and ideas. For further information e-mail Suzie Arruda at economy@challengerbanks.bm or visit us on FACEBOOK — Regeneration of Bermuda’s Economy.(*) As reported by the Department of Statistics, Average Employment Income for 2010 was $80,996.(**) “Bermuda’s Delicate Balance” 1981 [Published by Bermuda National Trust] — Chapter Two — p10