Following the market leading investments
Most investors realise that to be successful you need to have your own point of view, that it often pays to fade the crowd, and be somewhat contrarian.That said, it would seem to me to be rather myopic and vain to ignore the opinions of those who have had an excellent long-term track record picking stocks. At our shop we benefit from a highly-skilled staff that uses a consistent framework and set of models to evaluate all companies.We are also not adverse to gaining insight from some of the best investment managers in the business. One of the procedures we do is to dig through the 13-F filings of who we consider the top managers, in hopes of uncovering some great investment ideas and maybe even further our conviction on some of our own internal recommendationsIf the really smart guys like something it often pays to listen. These filings show what managers bought, sold and hold in the most recent quarter. It allows us to get a glimpse of when and what they find attractive.Since the filings have recently all been released, it is a good time to look through the reports and over the shoulders of some great managers to see what they find attractive today. It is worth noting a few things. One can get a feel for the level of conviction these managers have based on the size of the position in their portfolios.For example, the Yacktman Fund holds 10.53 percent of PepsiCo (Ticker: PEP) and 4.7 percent of Coca-Cola (Ticker : KO). One could infer from this that the manager likes beverage companies but is more convicted with PEP then KO. Sizes may also reflect how attractive these managers see various sectors. For example, in T2 Partners' filing we see that they have a higher conviction in the area of technology where roughly 26 percent of their portfolio is weighted. Microsoft (Ticker : MSFT) represents about seven percent of their fund.When one looks at these positions, it is also worth considering that these decisions were made in the prior quarter and that the filings typically are submitted about 60 days after the quarter. The position may have been purchased at a lower or higher price but it is impossible to discern exactly when in the quarter and at what price the guru bought the shares.That said, one can quickly note if a stock is actually trading at a lower price than at any time in the quarter and this might offer one an even better price than the guru was willing to buy it at.So let us look at the top five buys from the managers we follow (see Table 1).It is worth noting CSCO now trades lower than it ever did in the last quarter so investors looking for a deal may actually be able to buy this stock cheaper than the gurus we follow.I would suggest reading the managers' quarterly commentaries so you can understand the rationale behind why they are accumulating or selling stocks. For example, if you read through Tweedy Browne's latest quarterly commentary you can get an understanding of why they are buying CSCO:“It has a dominant market position and has been growing within a category that we believe still has a lot of room for future growth. Perceived competitive threats and concerns about possible slower rates of growth have put pressure on Cisco's stock price, which has allowed us an entry point in the stock that we believe is at roughly a one third discount from a conservative estimate of the company's intrinsic value.”Another way to analyse potential holdings would be to track a list of the most held stocks by your favourite stock masters. See Table 2 for the top ten holdings by our top value investors.These tables are not to be considered “buy lists” or investment recommendations but hopefully they give you a starting point to do some of your own research.If you want to build your own screeners or follow some stock gurus I would suggest checking out www.gurufocus.com or www.whalewisdom.com where you can build lists of your favorite managers and “look over their shoulders “ as they invest. In fact this strategy has proven to be quite a successful one. According to gurufocus.com, investing in the “Most Broadly Held Portfolio”, which basically tracks the most common stocks held by their list of gurus, has generated returns of 23.3 percent since inception compared to the S&P 500 of 4.5 percent as of May 26, 2011. Clearly it is worth “following the leaders”.Full disclosure: Anchor Investment Management Ltd. and/or the author hold positions in Cisco, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, American Express and Newmont. Positions discussed are not to be considered investment recommendations. Please consult your financial advisor regarding investment advice.
1st Quarter 2011
Name Ticker # of Managers Buying
Cisco CSCO 4
MasterCard MA 3
Newmont NEM 2
Safeway SWY 2
Apple AAPL 2
Top 10 Holdings by Anchor Value Investors1st Quarter 2011Name Ticker # of Managers HoldingBerkshire Hathaway IncBRK/B 7Wells Fargo WFC 7Cisco Systems CSCO 7Microsoft MSFT 7Apple AAPL 6Wal-Mart WMT 5ConocoPhillips COP 5American Express AXP 5Pfizer PFE 5Comcast CMCSK 4