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Evidence that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff

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The Baltic Dry Index Chart

There is an old adage in the media industry that “Bad news sells newspapers”. The past month has been a goldmine for the ever-present 24-hour news cycle with a myriad of economic and market meltdowns. Unfortunately, this constant and pervasive message has only increased the level of fear and uncertainty investors are feeling.Most people have a bias toward assigning a greater value to recent events, and for many the memory of loss associated with the 2008 to 2009 recession is still fresh in their minds. For this reason there is a natural tendency to gravitate towards negative data points, which has created a sort of economic hypochondria and the latest movements in the stock market reflect this. According to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc, never before has the S&P 500 seen consecutive sessions with gains and losses as large as those seen from August 8 through August 11. This same period also reflects the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved more than 400 points either up or down four days in a row. Although I cannot offer empirical evidence for this, I believe a large part of this volatility is due to “high frequency trading” and leveraged exchange traded fund products (better known as ETF’s). I’m not going to waste your time highlighting economic indicators which prove we are headed for or may even be in a recession. The general media has already done that for us. I will try to point out some interesting data points which may indicate a global economic collapse is not an easy slam dunk.Let’s start with the Baltic Dry Index. This is a rather obscure index that tracks the cost of global shipping. A rise would indicate global expansion and a contraction generally indicates an economic slowdown. It is a pretty good indicator given the fact that it is very timely and is based on actual prices paid. In this case it is hitting new highs for the year. This is in the face of bankruptcies in the shipping industry and some tanker oversupply. Wouldn’t you expect transportation costs to be heading lower if we were in or about to enter a massive economic global contraction?Then there is Brent crude. Most professional commodities traders are using Brent instead of Western Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) because it is a more global benchmark. WTI is slowly becoming an irrelevant price for crude as it is being subject to local market conditions in the US. As you can see from the chart below, Brent is not indicating a massive global slowdown. In fact it is now higher than it has ever been except for the prior spike in 2008.And finally let us consult the metal with a PhD in economics - copper. Copper is considered to be one of the best economic bellwethers for global growth due to its high industrial and construction use. Dr Copper doesn’t seem to be indicating financial Armageddon. In fact it is now higher than it ever was during the prior economic expansion, surpassing levels seen in 2006 and 2007.All these indicators don’t guarantee an expansion of course but they may be indicating that the global economy is not falling off a cliff and that maybe the world’s equity markets have already discounted a lot of the negative news reported by the 24-hour news cycle.I will leave you with a few more interesting points which may indicate that the market could be offering very attractive buying opportunities to slowly and cautiously wade into:1. One of the amazing data points to come out of August’s market crash was the level of insider buying. The Financial Times recently reported that insiders, i.e. corporate officers and executives in the know, are buying, “on scale not seen since March 2009”. As you know this was actually the bottom of the 2008-2009 bear market. InsiderScore.com notes, “In the past 30 years, there has been no time when the market bottomed and rallied when it wasn’t preceded by a critical mass of insider buying”. Of course, to be fair, this is not a perfect indicator as the November 2008 high reading proved to be a bit early, but it does remain a good data point. In addition, Insider Trade reports that, “Over four decades of academic research have shown that by following in the footsteps of company insiders and buying the stocks that they are buying, you can outperform the market by six to 10.2 percent per year.”2. Current valuations are not very demanding. I will be the first to admit that valuation is not a great timing tool. Assets that are cheap can get a lot cheaper. However, if future earnings per share of the aggregated S&P 500 constituents plunged 20 percent to roughly $80, the current market price of 1,154, as of the time of writing, would reflect a price to earnings ratio of roughly 14 times - not an overly demanding level especially considering that the index dividend yield is now more than a 10-year Treasury security. Europe looks even more compelling from a valuation perspective but it obviously has a greater level of macro uncertainty. The DAX Index (German stock market) now trades at its lowest price-earnings ratio, according to Bloomberg data which began in 1997, of eight times earnings.3. Fear is also definitely high. According to a recent study on the VIX, otherwise known as ‘the fear guage’, conducted by Frank Holmes of US Global Investors, “the VIX closed above the 40 level five times since 1995, and in all but one occurrence the market was at higher levels just three months later. The exception is 2008, when the VIX passed 40 on its way to 90 and remained elevated for months during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression…the market has rebounded roughly six percent on average over the three-month period after hitting the 40 mark.”All the factors I have noted above do not guarantee that 1,100 on the S&P 500 has marked the recent bottom, nor does it guarantee that we will not have a global recession. However, barring a complete meltdown in Europe, a great deal of bad news has already been priced into stocks with select company securities already reflecting very adverse future macro deterioration. Monetary stimulus is plentiful, the world economy is still expanding, albeit at a much slower speed, and double dip recessions do not generally happen without a powerful negative shock. All these factors and some listed above are decent arguments against the return of a major cyclical bear market in stocks.Nathan Kowlaski is the chief financial officer of Anchor Investment Management.

Copper Price Index
Brent Crude Price Index