A few random comments on the markets and finance:Bull marketYes that’s right. We seem to be in a bull market. The S&P 500 has produced a total return of about 150 percent since the bottom in March of 2009.Don’t tell anyone though because most people don’t realise it yet. Most Main Street folks are still smarting from the 2008-09 collapse.Their caution and fear has not dissipated. In a recent Franklin Templeton poll 66 percent of investors believed the market had fallen in 2009. They also thought, when polled in 2011, that the market was down in 2010.After reading headlines you almost can’t blame the Main Street guys for feeling this way. Almost, though, because you shouldn’t be investing on headlines. Most bull markets are actually periods of uncertainty and apprehension. They are not, contrary to popular belief, periods of euphoria and joy.The latter periods happen at the end of the bull market, much closer to the end than the middle or beginning. In fact the common adage is that bull markets “climb a wall of worry”. It’s this slight uncomfortable environment that prevents people from fully committing and this slow acceptance creates a constant flow of funds that seem to surge in on any dip or drop in the market.This offers a constant bid to the market. Richard Bernstein recently listed a series of conditions present in the 1980s bull market. The list is eerily familiar, here are a few:— Out-of-control Federal Reserve— Slow growth economy— Iran causing geopolitical risk— Prior decade sub-par equity returns— Federal Budget Deficits— Tax reform— Sovereign debt problems— Declining profit marginsThe countervailing argument is that sentiment is outright bullish now and the retail investor is jumping in.TrimTabs Investment Research reported on March 4th that $55.1 billion poured into global equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January and February, the biggest two-month inflow on record. Large inflows like this have often occurred near market tops.The most important thing to admit, however, is that no one knows what will happen. If they say they do they are lying. It’s best to stop trying to time the market and start buying solid companies with great prospects at attractive valuations. In fact, it’s always time to do that.Capital wins and labour losesThe sad part is some investors not only took a beating in 2008-09 but they also have not benefited from the rebound either. This is also reflected in the general economy. Capital is winning hands down. Labour is still struggling. The stark difference partially explains why the stock market is doing so well versus the economy. There are still millions out of work which creates an environment where there is very little pressure to raise wages. Productivity is also rising which helps companies maintaining higher margins. Corporations are in much better shape than most households. Corporate profits as a percentage of national income hit 14.2 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2012, the highest at any time since 1950.The proportion of income that is going to employees is stagnating at 61.7 percent, right near its low set in 1966. Pair this with the fact that corporate earnings have risen at an annualised rate of some 20 percent since the end of 2008 while disposable income in the US has barely moved at 1.4 percent annually. Historically this is unprecedented. As I mentioned in my article about the global job market “Bermuda’s Coming War on Jobs”, there remains a global shortage of good jobs. Jim Clifton’s work at Gallop suggests this shortage is some 1.8 billion. It looks like capital remains in the driver’s seat for now.Commodity bull market over?Gold is rolling over. Commodities have not participated in this rally. Commodity bulls remind me of what Sun Tzu would have called “General’s fighting the last war”.They are steadfast in their belief that the old paradigm of a commodity bull market and hard asset inflation is the only way to invest.They shun “financial assets” and perpetuate the commodity bull story of China demand on emerging market consumption. In fact commodities have peaked recently in May of 2011 and are still down some 15 percent since then even though the stock market is up some 13 percent, a near 30 percent difference.There are few aspects that may explain this:1. Rebound in the dollar. Part of the initial run in the commodity bull market of the past was the weakening dollar. A fall in the trade-weighted dollar helps inflate prices for most commodities because they are priced in US dollars. The dollar may be about to embark on a multiyear bull market. This in turn will act as headwind going forward.2. Demand shift. To be sure, the commodity demand coming from emerging markets will not simply disappear and is likely to continue for some time. The level or marginal demand, however, may be shifting. It’s highly likely that China’s massive over investment will begin to subside and they will focus more on growing consumption which is far less commodity intensive.3. Supply side response. One trait of humanity that seems to be constantly discounted is our ability to solve problems. Every time we run into a shortage or a crisis you can pretty much guarantee some smart person or corporation will rise to the occasion and find a way to develop something cheaper, faster or better. The supply side often takes a much longer time to respond to demand but once it does it can be dramatic.For example, the US had a growing energy deficit problem which they have mitigated with technology: fracking. Such is the case with the commodities surge. The level of capital investment and expansion in this space is absolutely massive. It is likely that fracking technology will be expanded globally.This trend coupled with large mine expansions that will be completed or have been completed over the past years will adjust the supply level of many commodities to more of a balanced position. This is a very cursory overview of the commodity complex and I’ll expand further in another column.Disclaimer: This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Anchor Investment Management Ltd. to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.