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Can economic growth continue?

A change is as good as a rest, Mr Editor, so this week a break from my usual.

Everyone wants more and few among us desire less. As a general rule I think that’s pretty true. The trouble is that it also presents a challenge in today’s economic climate and Bermuda is no exception, perhaps even the more so given what we are: an isolated island community of 20 square miles with limited resources.

Economic growth is often advanced as the solution to some, if not most of our problems, in our case in the form of more people (imported) and a greater injection of foreign capital which hopefully will mean more business and more jobs all around but most especially for the unemployed and underemployed among us. At least that is the theory, and arguably the current OBA Government appears at all turns to have staked its political future on growth and the benefits it might bring.

However, there could be some question as to (one) whether this is possible and (two) whether this is what people want? Let me tackle the second question first.

This would seem to be a no-brainer. Not everyone is prepared to make do with less. On the contrary — and this is particularly true for those who want to earn more. It is perfectly natural to want to do better, and not just for ourselves but for our children and those who follow behind them. You might in fact think that this is precisely the sort of spirit that we need in Bermuda today and precisely the sort of spirit that has carried our community thus far.

On the other hand, entrepreneurship can find ways to do more with less. Many of our seniors for example are already grappling with this on the front lines, learning how to live on fixed incomes and in the face of rising prices.

However, I doubt that they think of themselves as entrepreneurs. Most find themselves in circumstances over which they have no control and where they have had little or no choice, having to manage on depleted savings, if any at all, and on very meagre pensions in some cases.

But our seniors are no longer alone today in the challenges they face in the trenches and this brings me back to my first question: the need for continued economic growth and whether this is indeed possible?

I raise this question, prompted in part by a book I have been re-reading, The End Of Growth (But Is That All Bad?), by Jeff Rubin, a Canadian economist who also wrote the best seller, ‘Why Your World IS About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller’. Incidentally the book was first published in late 2012 .He believes that the western world (by and large) is entering a period of static economic growth. His theory: the end of cheap oil prices equals the end of growth as well as an end to prosperity, at least as we have known it to date.

Mr Rubin also contends that political power is shifting from oil-consuming countries to the major oil producers and that future alliances will likely develop around the security of energy supply rather than on any shared political or economic values. Hmmm. You might well wonder where this will leave Bermuda, dependent as we are on the outside world for our energy supply, never mind the impact the rising cost has on the airlines and shipping lines that serve us.

He further believes that the winds of economic change that are sweeping the world are going to force many of us to alter our lifestyles and our expectations and to learn to make more with less. As food and energy prices climb, the economist contends that conservation will replace consumerism out of necessity, necessity being the mother of invention. This may not be bad thing in his view either; in fact it might be a good thing. It may bring an end to the concept that consumption equals happiness and greater consumption, greater happiness. It may also help fuel the ‘Green Revolution’ that he sees as inevitable, if not desirable.

Spending will also have to be reined in and debt will need to seriously reduced — by individuals as well as by Government. Easier said than done, sure. Economic stimulus packages will only be temporary fixes, if a fix at all, he argues, assuming money can even be borrowed. Greater effort instead (and spending) should be on education, training and retraining and retraining yet again. The new world will belong to the financially nimble, he contends. A static economy will also necessitate change in the services governments are able to provide and they will become less focused on ideology and politics, and more focused instead on what taxpayers can and cannot afford. Some will even turn to the private sector, again out of necessity, to deliver services they can no longer can. Sounds familiar does it not?

We have already seen the beginnings of some of this here and elsewhere. If it all sounds too grim, look on the bright side: this is only theory and, as many politicians have often found to their regret, reality rarely lives up to theory. Right?

• If you have a view share it on The Royal Gazette website or write jbarritt@ibl.bm.