Four years after the General Election of 2012, a voting shift is seemingly taking place across the island.

In November 2014, the signs that this shift had begun to take root were evident in the results of the Constituency 33 by-election where the Progressive Labour Party was successful in increasing the margin of win from 56 per cent to 58 per cent.

In February 2016, another significant voting shift took place in the C13 by-election, with the PLP increasing its margin from 51 per cent to 56 per cent.

On December 20, in the C26 by-election, a monumental shift took place, which even the most ardent of political pundits did not expect.

What is that shift, you say? Well, let us take a moment to go over the numbers.

As shown in graph A, in December 2010 there was a by-election held in C26. At that time there were three candidates: Sylvan Richards with the fledgeling Bermuda Democratic Alliance, the late Devrae Noel-Simmons with the United Bermuda Party and Marc Bean with the PLP.

The outcome was 70 votes, 78 votes and 300 votes respectively. Essentially, the PLP had secured 65 per cent of the vote

In December 2012, there was a General Election held in which the two candidates were Ras Mykkal for the OBA and Bean for the PLP. The outcome of that election was 272 OBA and 507 PLP. Again, with the PLP capturing approximately 65 per cent of the vote

Historically speaking, in 2003 and 2007, the PLP captured 65 per cent and 68 per cent of the vote respectively.

Then came along 2016 by-election in C26. As shown in graph B, when the dust was settled and votes had been counted, the results were as follows; 12 Independent, 103 OBA and 477 PLP. Percentage-wise, that worked out to 2 per cent, 17 per cent and 81 per cent respectively.

So not only did the turnout for the by-election increase by almost 33 per cent but the share of PLP votes went from 65 per cent up to 81 per cent.

What does this mean for the OBA?

It clearly shows that the all-important swing voters are shifting away from supporting the OBA. Considering that the OBA can win only with the support of swing voters, it would indicate that if this trend is island-wide, the OBA has a lot of work to do to recapture that demographic.

What does this mean for the PLP?

It clearly shows that swing voters have begun to look to the PLP as a viable option. With that in mind, the PLP must continue to knock on every door in this island and engage with the people of Bermuda. Just like any other relationship, for growth in understanding and trust to take place, open and honest dialogue must be first and foremost.

As clearly shown in the graphs, every single vote counts.