I believe statistics are sexy. Perhaps that is over-glorifying it just a bit. I do find myself staring at them, though, because they can be used like a crystal ball and help to shine a light on possible outcomes into the future. Understanding statistics could help one to assess risks and make choices, and they can be used for many types of data analysis.

Take for instance the Labour Force Survey Report which was recently released. The biggest takeaway for me is the 3.1 per cent unemployment rate which was recorded in November last year. Reviewing the past seven labour reports, this is the lowest unemployment number since the recession in 2008.

As I outlined in a previous op-ed in The Royal Gazette titled “Controlling the controllables in pursuit of jobs growth”, a higher job-to-local resident imbalance must recur to help attract more people to the island and give a boost to our economy. A low unemployment rate is key for this to happen and, if it is sustained, it will have mostly positive domino effects. Look out for a further relaxation of the Government’s closed and restricted job categories.

As an aside, I am not as concerned with youth unemployment being 11.1 per cent as stated in the report, although it is 3.6 times the overall unemployment rate. Except for the reporting year 2018, unemployment for the 16-24 youth age group is the lowest recorded since 2009.

The beauty of statistics is having the ability to not only be able to compare them with your own past data to identify trends, but also with other countries for reference. The House of Commons labour market statistics report for Britain, for March to May 2023, shows unemployment for their 16-24 youth age group at 11.4 per cent. This contrasts with their overall unemployment rate of 4 per cent over the same period. The accompanying statement that caught my attention was: “By historical standards, unemployment levels for young people remain low.”

The much higher youth unemployment numbers, in comparison with the overall rate for both Bermuda and Britain, piqued my curiosity. Statistics have a way of doing that. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics shows the overall unemployment for the United States at 3.4 per cent for the second quarter of this year. Their youth unemployment numbers are quite revealing, as they segment the 16-24 age group into subgroups. For their 16 to 17-year-olds, unemployment is 11.7 per cent, 18-19 is 10.2 per cent, and 20-24 is 6 per cent.

If the US Bureau had grouped its 16-24 age group together, the unemployment number would have been skewed by the higher rates of the 16-19 ages. As this specific subgroup would have either not completed high school or had recently graduated, the higher jobless numbers are understandable. Perhaps, this is more of an education or social problem than an unemployment one. The House of Commons in Britain and our own Department of Statistics would be wise to follow the example of the US Bureau of Labour to get more clarity.

One type of data reporting we do not generate enough of in Bermuda is statistics that could help with predictive modelling for pre-emptive purposes. I have previously advocated for the need for the island to assess its own happiness. Going beyond traditional economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, the Happiness Index provides a more holistic measurement of societal progress. By understanding the factors that contribute to happiness, the Government can zero in on policies that would enhance the wellbeing of the local community.

There is certainly a need to find out how many Bermudians have emigrated overseas. However, at the end of the day, our fellow countrymen have domiciled elsewhere and more likely most will not be returning. A bigger priority now is to prevent more families from moving away. Emigration is the outcome; happiness is the pre-emptive.

Here are some other statistics that should be provided on a regular basis, which would help to identify issues that could lead to negative outcomes:

Obesity

It is well known that Bermuda generally has a very unhealthy population, mainly because of our personal lifestyle choices. Also known is the high rate of obesity on the island and the high number of adults that have hypertension or diabetes. These chronic health conditions, which are outcomes, are some of the leading causes of illness and death in our community.

People being overweight is one of the leading causes of hypertension and diabetes. However, the last time a detailed health survey was conducted on the island that I could find was in 2015. How do we know whether the general population is less or more overweight? The World Obesity Federation has warned that more than half the world’s population will be classed as obese or overweight by 2035 if action is not taken.

Health surveys should be conducted once or every other year at least. We know our health is in a crisis, but we do not regularly measure and capture the relevant information. As I have stated previously, I have no issue with the sugar tax because of our health issues. My gripe is we do not know how effective the campaign has been and whether it has made a difference.

Vaccinations

Leading up to the pandemic, there was a noticeable increase of anti-vaccination disinformation being circulated on social media. The vaccines for Covid-19 added rocket fuel to the fire. The National Health Service in Britain had reported, before the pandemic, that coverage for the first dose of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine had dropped to 90.3 per cent in 2018-19. This was the fifth consecutive year that MMR coverage in England had decreased. The World Health Organisation target is 95 per cent.

The Public Health Institute in the Netherlands recently reported the vaccination rate among babies and toddlers up to two years old has fallen below 90 per cent for the first time in decades. A spokesman from the institute has warned, “A high vaccination rate is important to continue to protect people against serious diseases and to prevent outbreaks of these diseases. If that percentage [95 per cent] is not reached, there is a greater chance that measles, for example, will come back.”

Young children should receive their vaccinations to maintain herd immunity, prevent outbreaks, and protect those who are vulnerable in our community. My fear is the furore over the Covid-19 vaccines has made hesitancy worse and we need to monitor this going forward.

Household and personal debt

We know Bermuda’s GDP per capita, household median income, and we even know household expenditure, although I wished the latter would be stated more often. What is not reported on is household and personal debt. Bermuda’s debt challenges are well known and have been discussed frequently. However, we do not know what is owed on personal mortgages, cars, credit cards and other liabilities.

What is the debt-to-income ratio of households in Bermuda? What is the amount of debt that soon-to-be retirees and our seniors have? We know how the Government overleveraged itself, particularly after the recession. Did Bermudians follow a similar spending and borrowing path leading up to the recession, when median gross annual income grew from $38,000 in the year 2000, to $55,000 in 2008, an increase of 45 per cent?

Knowing a country’s household debt is important, as it is one of the metrics that is used to understand the financial health of its citizens. High levels of household and personal debt can be a warning sign of potential economic problems. Understanding household and personal debt trends on the island can help in long-term planning.

Statistics are important because they play a key role in understanding and analysing data. Without statistics, it would be more difficult to make informed decisions and the best choices. Statistics can be also used to prevent forecasted outcomes. If a policy or programme is not getting the desired result, it can be modified or pivoted altogether.

During a recent interview, the executive director of Cada, Anthony Santucci, “suggested” two thirds of all road traffic collisions in Bermuda involved alcohol. Herein lies the problem: that the leader of the Council on Alcohol and Drug Abuse did not know for certain highlights the lack of key statistics that are available on the island. Our institutions have the data; we need to make a more concerted effort and assign the resources to share it.

• Malcolm Raynor has worked in the telecommunications industry in Bermuda for more than 30 years. Benefiting from Cable & Wireless’s internal training and education programmes held in Bermuda, Barbados, St Lucia (The University of the West Indies) and Britain, he rose to the level as senior vice-president. An independent thinker possessing a moderate ideology, his opinions are influenced by principle, data and trends