When the shark oil gets cloudy, it means a storm is imminent. On a political level, those who checked the shark oil should note how cloudy it has become lately, which typically means we are in election season.

Economic uncertainty, a special development order turned down by the planning department, political disarray, diverse protests and legal interpretations in courts combined all spell that it is time for an election.

Trying to see the political landscape through the eyes of David Burt, the bets are high that he would be contemplating calling an election in this environment. In his world, this would not be seen as a snap election, but rather the instrument to use while there is still a bit of daylight amid the turmoil to extend his mandate for another four to five years.

What is the gamble? At the moment, the Progressive Labour Party government is not popular and losing whatever it had daily, and obviously has no record of success universally. The hope for the party is that the One Bermuda Alliance remains less desirable in the eyes of the electorate.

The big question at the polls will be whether the general support base of the PLP is happy to return to this administration. Has this administration captured the hearts of sufficient core supporters so that they have hope that after another term things will get better? Truthfully, I don’t think that there is any expectation they would get better. Or will it be like 2012 when voter support was withdrawn and indignities were suffered to the extent that Paula Cox, then the Premier, lost her seat to Glenn Smith, a polar opposite in a political sense?

One year ago, Mr Burt was sure to hang his electoral hat on having the Fairmont Southampton deal signed, sealed and delivered — he said it was imminent. That turned out to be untrue. The Development Applications Board, with popular support, recently turned down the SDO that the developer says was needed for financing to proceed. (This has yet to be made public, but we have it on good authority.) When asked about the DAB rejection, the Premier is to have said: “It’s in the hands of the minister now and the deal is almost completed.” No, Mr Premier, the deal is in your hands and everyone can see it. The Premier’s decision in this regard will certainly answer the question and clarify all the rumours about who is really in charge of the country.

The question for the OBA is whether it will have energy at the top with an enthused new leader who can gain the electorate’s confidence that anything at this moment would be better than the trajectory of the existing government. In such case, it is not hope for a brighter future but an avoidance of an assured and disastrously difficult one. As the old seafaring statement would say, “It’s a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.”

In business, we have the term “lender of last resort”. As an example, Ghana had to be bailed out recently by the International Monetary Fund, which is the lender of last resort for countries facing economic difficulties. In so many ways, the OBA stands out as a political choice of “last resort”. It certainly appears true when Michael Fahy returns from oblivion, having almost single-handedly given the government back to the PLP.

Let’s be clear here: that was not because of his advocacy of “Pathways to Status”, where he was right, but because of his rabid handling of the City development and the Corporation of Hamilton, which caused a lot of Black middle-class support to question his intent. Not that the country didn’t need it, or that he was absolutely wrong, but who was pushing it was more the issue.

The same question emerged when Rolfe Commissiong was made the head of the “Big Conversation”. Yeah, the chicken coup needs to be guarded, but you don’t put a fox in charge of a henhouse. No pun intended because he is a great and very intelligent guy, but I would not put Michael Fahy on my campaign trail.

It is a tough equation to figure out. We instinctively know what the feelings and facts are on the ground, Therefore, we know it will not be another 30-6. More like 23-13 or 20-16. Either number is a victory for the PLP, which would be mission accomplished. It would say: “We got a renewed mandate from the people; the people have confidence in us.” Would the OBA then take a loss and be consoled by saying the “phoenix has arisen from the ashes”? It’s a little like jumping for glee when the doctor tells you that you have pneumonia when you thought it was cancer. You are still deathly ill, you fool.

A year or so ago, there was chatter about another group that might supplant the Opposition as the best option for a clear shot at the title of being a new government. However, in the present environment with the continued perseverance of the OBA, that seems unlikely, and unless properly co-ordinated, any entry of a third group would be to the benefit of the PLP.

Will an election change the paradigm or will it affirm one statement, that the PLP’s assurance of victory at the polls is hinged on having the OBA as its rival?

We shall soon see and the question is, when will an election be called? The sad truth of our form of politics is the answer is not blowing in the wind; it’s simply a question of when it is more advantageous to any premier. Based on that, can anyone reasonably be certain when would it be best for the PLP to call an election?

Let’s look at some optics: there is a trial going on of a former premier who has claimed to be a victim of White imperialists as an outspoken Black man. There was an MP connected to the case of the missing $800,000 who was excused by the Department of Public Prosecutions. There was the Cup Match and summer holidays, which meant there was plenty of heat and festivity. Then there are the diverse protest groups gathering momentum, which could dampen turnout for elections; the October 5 by-election may be a guide. And then there is the debilitating hack of government services, which has been ongoing for the past week. There may be a need to distract from bad news. Could it be the SDO? The odds in such cases indicate an earlier election. Someone may be whispering in Mr Burt’s ear: “We need certainty!”

Or would the milder and even cooler period of autumn, which is more conducive for a reflective mode, and when students are back in school, be the appropriate time? I would guess that form of rationale is why American elections are held in November rather than the hotter or colder months. I am not a gambling person but if this were a bet, how would we stack the odds for an election date being sooner or later? I take a friendly bet and give you 10-1 for it to be sooner.