Promise and potential of Central Asia Five
With all that is going on in the world right now, Central Asia is occasionally overlooked. But the region is taking on increasing importance as a market, as a place Russia may move on, as a set of countries that are clearly on China’s radar, and as an untapped market for Western companies.
Central Asia, as its name implies, occupies an important geographic position. Situated deep in the heart of the Eurasian landmass, it consists of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. One handicap these nations share in common: a lack of access to the ocean.
Over many centuries, the inhabitants of this area led nomadic lifestyles, primarily engaged in activities such as cattle-breeding and hunting. That is all changing now because of the new interest in the region.
Among the oldest known states were the kingdoms of Bactria, Khorezm and Sogdiana, all of which were established in the 6th century BC or earlier. The capital city of Sogdiana, originally known as Marakanda, was founded around 700BC. These sites are among the world’s most ancient and now have protected status on the Unesco World Heritage List.
From the 2nd century BC to the 15th century AD, the Great Silk Road played a pivotal role in shaping the region’s development. That extensive caravan route served as a vital link connecting East Asia to the Mediterranean world.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, each of the five republics attained national sovereignty.
A key part in the region is Kazakhstan, covering a landmass exceeding four million square kilometres. Within this vast expanse are some of the world’s least densely populated areas, hosting a diverse population of approximately 76 million individuals representing more than 100 ethnic groups — from Germans and Austrians to Tibetans and Koreans.
Moving to diversify
All these nations are engaged in various efforts to broaden their economic bases. They are shifting away from conventional sectors such as natural resources to a new emphasis on technology, manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. Several Western companies have realised this and have invested in Central Asia.
As a result, the region has experienced significant economic expansion since 2000. Look for more improvements in areas such as public administration, trade and transportation, as well as the overall business environment.
Developing regional connectivity
The CASA-1000 project, representing the largest energy endeavour within Central and South Asia, will establish a cross-border, high-voltage transmission line that will connect the grids of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with those of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This will create a unified electricity market to facilitate year-round trade and economic development.
Look for the emergence of more frameworks designed to foster greater co-operation among Central Asian countries. Simultaneously, however, each nation is defining its unique objectives and perspectives, which could complicate matters.
Political transition and stability
In the three decades-plus since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian nations have successfully bolstered their status. Far from remaining under Moscow’s thumb as many observers expected, they have emerged as self-reliant international entities.
Despite their relatively weak starting positions in the aftermath of the Soviet era — which was marked by the collapse of social and administrative systems and the turbulence of the 1990s — the Central Asian nations have embarked on essential reforms. They have adeptly navigated the complexities of globalisation and, with varying degrees of success, harnessed their natural advantages to stabilise and advance their economies.
It is true that several of them have experienced shifts in leadership or political transitions. But efforts to preserve stability are in progress, and while anything could happen, the outlook at the moment is encouraging.
What lies ahead
The prospects for Central Asia are, therefore, promising. It is likely that by capitalising on the emerging opportunities, they will evolve into an even more significant and integral component of the global economy over the coming decades.
Central Asia stands at an intersection, a time and place where economic diversification, regional interconnectedness and geopolitical considerations will shape events. By manoeuvring through these currents with skilful diplomacy, well-rounded development strategies and a steadfast dedication to regional collaboration, the five nations can unlock their potential for a future of prosperity and stability.
It is especially encouraging that the concept of regional identity continues to gain momentum. Central Asian nations are increasingly acknowledging a shared identity, both at home and on the global stage. Leaders believe that acting as a unified entity will allow them to exercise increased leverage in their interactions with the wider world.
Implications for business
This could be a place to consider for investment. But proceed carefully since the leadership there is still not fully tested and — as is true in so much of the developing world — subject to sudden change.
• Robert Dilenschneider is the founder and principal of the Dilenschneider Group, which provides strategic advice and counsel to Fortune 500 companies, and leading families and individuals around the world