“Wise leaders are those who know that they must think tragically in order to avoid tragedy. It is only through anxious foresight – the knowledge that our circumstances can always change, dramatically, and for the worse – that we learn modesty and are delivered from illusion.” — Robert Kaplan (The Tragic Mind)

Admittedly I‘m no professed expert on leadership, but Robert Kaplan’s words strike me as sound advice — and entirely appropriate given the circumstances which Bermuda now appears to be facing.

I do not have in mind the reaction of voters to the hefty pay raises legislators have given themselves, but rather, and in ironic juxtaposition, the dramatic challenge to our cost of living that may follow decisions being made in Washington. Two of them spring immediately to mind: tariffs and the proposed whopping increase in port dues for Chinese-made ships.

Much like the next person, my initial reaction is to want to vent. But a fat lot of good complaining will do. Moreover, venting isn’t what we need. In fact, it may not even be good for our health — physical, mental and political. What we need to be working on are solutions. Solutions that are grounded in the new reality.

The new reality?

It is a rendezvous that we cannot avoid. We see the way things are shaking out in the United States. Or should I say shaking down? The one constant is unpredictability, uncertainty and the yo-yo of chaos that flows from that. No one can safely or reasonably predict what could come next or when and why.

There was a time when “representations” in Washington to US Government officials and to our friends in high places worked for us. I think back to the days when Sir John Swan was premier when, at a critical point in our economic development, we were able to employ to advantage good personal relations with the men in the White House — Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Unfortunately, it would appear that those days are behind us. So, too, it would seem, is enjoying a direct channel of communication with the present occupant.

Of course, we can still but try — and we should. But alliances, old or new, cannot be counted on; never mind how compelling the case. Just ask Canada. Neither is there any guarantee that diplomatic genuflection, flattery or outright obsequiousness will work. Again, ask Canada.

Our premier and government were proactive early — in Washington and then meeting with importers and shippers here to begin exploring a Plan B. Plans C and D wouldn’t hurt, either. It’s nothing if not prudent to engage in forward planning and to have other options and back-up plans. The local circle of consultation should also be as wide and as inclusive as possible, as we work on alternatives. Include the Opposition, even. It would be good if we were all on the same page. Public squabbling won’t help.

There are those who suggest that there is something larger emerging here; that what we are witnessing is the emergence of a new Western age, and that the US-led international order, with which so many of us grew up and are familiar, is over. It sure looks that way at times. We know, too, what usually comes next: “The enemy of my enemy becomes my friend.”

While I appreciate that may be overstating it a bit, you get the idea. It’s just that sort of thinking that makes China begin to look like a more attractive and reliable trading partner for any number of countries.

Quo Fata Ferunt: whither the fates may lead us, all right. Still we must find a way to navigate what lies ahead and we should employ all the experience, heft and insight the island can muster to rise to the challenge.

Unfortunately, and unavoidably, there will be some sacrifice along the way — in the short term and maybe even long term as well — as people in the US and elsewhere are finding out. There is a cost to all this that is putting a further squeeze on tight budgets.

And so back to those pay raises: it’s unfortunate they came down when they did. I appreciate that they were the recommendations of an independent board. That was thought to be an ideal way to tackle pay increases for legislators when it was established legislatively.

I know. I was there and supported the Bill. We are aware, too, that legislators have also gone years without any increase at all. But any way you look at it, this was a big catch-up, and at a time when residents are having to suffer some belt-tightening they cannot avoid in the face of rising costs, both real and threatened. Catch-up for them is most likely out of the question.

• John Barritt is a former elected member of the Bermuda legislature where he served for 18 years. Dialogue is welcome. John may be reached at jbarritt@ibl.bm