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3,000 letters go out as island prepares for storm season

WITH the hurricane season set to start tomorrow, residents are being asked to provide information that will help the authorities locate them in the case of an emergency.

Over the next two weeks, residents in all areas identified as hurricane flood zones will receive a letter, an information brochure and a questionnaire from the Emergency Measures Organisation (EMO).

EMO chairman and Home Affairs Minister Terry Lister said the intention in sending out the 3,000 packages was not to alarm residents, but to alert them to be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

The questionnaire asks whether residents have family or friends with whom they could stay on higher ground, whether they have a radio to monitor emergency broadcasts and whether any occupants would need special assistance if they had to move.

Weather experts at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, who monitor the western Atlantic, are predicting a slightly above-average season of hurricance activity.

Between June 1 and November 30, the NHC expects six to eight hurricanes to threaten the region and the outlook indicates the potential for nine to 13 tropical storms.

And Bermuda Weather Service forecaster Declan O'Connell said yesterday that although the island was most commonly hit by hurricanes late in the season, people should be prepared for storms right now.

The properties identified as at risk from hurricane flooding were pinpointed by studies carried out by Works & Engineering over several years. Mr. Lister said: "We do not want to alarm residents. We simply want them to be prepared. Only those residents in the risk areas will be receiving letters. Residents who live inland will not receive letters but should still prepare for hurricanes with usual precautions.

"We are looking at worst-case scenarios for storm surge or hurricane flooding. Based on their proximity to the coastline, we have separated properties into three lists: those properties likely to suffer flooding from category four and five hurricanes, those at risk from categories two up to five and those most at risk for hurricane flooding from category one through category five.

"We want to alert residents to the potential danger and advise them of the steps to take. We are also offering assistance, should relocation be necessary." Mr. O'Connell said the Weather Service was kept closely informed of developing storms by the NHC throughout the season.

"The NHC have better satellite imagery than us and they have the financial muscle to send up planes to monitor the storms when they are threatening landfall. And they are in charge of coming up with forecasts for the western Atlantic area," said Mr. O'Connell.

"The official season starts on June 1, but you can get some early season storms. Last week they were looking at an area of disturbed weather off Florida but it didn't turn into anything."

The most damaging hurricane to hit Bermuda in recent times was Hurricane Emily which swept over the island during the early hours of September 24, 1987, causing widespread damage.

"In 1987, it was a below-average year for hurricanes, with less storms then usual," said Mr. O'Conell. "It just shows the haphazard nature of predicting them."

A Weather Service study of local records dating back to 1609 showed an average of one damaging storm per six or seven years.

Peak months for tropical cyclone activity in Bermuda's vicinity are September and October, followed by August. Most threatening storms tend to initiate off Southern Florida and continue up the east coast before heading for the island.

Bermuda is, however, a small target which rarely suffers a direct hit from a hurricane and traditonal construction methods using stone blocks and heavy, strong roofs, have helped to ensure that there have been few casualties here associated with storm damage to buildings.