RECENT threats of US economic retaliation against Caricom for supporting the ousted President of Haiti have led Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons to call for the Progressive Labour Party Government to "face a couple of home truths" about Bermuda's external relations, but Government denied any move to become a full member of Caricom "at this time".

Guyanese journalist Mohamed Hamaludin reported in the that Caricom faced "economic retaliation" from the US, and that it was not the first time that Caricom summits have produced decisions that angered the US. In the 1970s, when Guyana, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados jointly established ties with the Castro regime, "the US penalised the area with cuts in economic aid".

However, Mr. Hamaludin observed that "the Caricom countries survived that diplomatic winter, and will do so again in the Aristide dispute . . . The question is whether Washington will ever stop treating them as little boys and girls who must be spanked when they are naughty."

Before the recent Caricom summit in St. Kitts, the reported that "Jamaica's decision to welcome former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has infuriated Bush administration officials, who say US relations with English-speaking Caribbean countries have reached a new low. Senior US officials refuse to speculate whether Washington will retaliate against Jamaica, which currently presides over the Caribbean Community (Caricom) regional bloc. "

Kenneth Dill, Bermuda's Assistant Cabinet Secretary ? Committees, insisted that closer ties with Caricom were not being contemplated.

"There is no intention, at this time, to become a full member of Caricom. There are five associate members. Anguilla has been an associate member since 1973, the British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos since 1991, and Cayman Islands since 2002.

"Associate membership has educational benefits, and there are various workshops we can attend, which are funded by Caricom. For example, we have people going down to attend workshops on HIV/Aids education. Those are some of the advantages of Bermuda's associate membership.

"Of course, as an associate member, you don't have a voice, you are only an observer at the main conferences, and you don't have a vote. You can contribute, but you don't have a vote on major issues."

Dr. Gibbons believed that it was time for Bermuda to reconsider some of the basic political and economic facts of life. "We must face a couple of home truths. For a country like Bermuda, isolated in the Atlantic, with severely limited natural resources, the pursuit of what I like to call 'economic diplomacy' is our most important foreign policy consideration.

"Given the importance of international business and tourism to Bermuda's medium and long-term economic success, we cannot afford to delegate any part of this responsibility for economic diplomacy to anyone else."

Dr. Gibbons believed that that there was a danger, particularly in connection with Caricom, that Bermuda could be drawn into other people's agendas.

"A classic example of that was when (Premier) Alex Scott attended the Caricom Heads of Government meeting in St. Kitts, and found himself getting sucked into agreeing with a vote on the Caricom position vis-a-vis Haiti and Mr. Aristide's departure.

"Clearly, Secretary of State Powell rejected any UN inquiry into that, and it is unlikely to happen. What possible benefit could Bermuda have received from Mr. Scott being dragged into a Caricom policy initiative which clearly caused alarm and annoyance in the United States?

"We are very dependent on the goodwill of the United States, specifically in terms of areas like tourism and the convention tax break, and generally in terms of US financial and fiscal policy."

Dr. Gibbons believed that the key issue for Bermuda was understanding where the island's interests lay. Caricom was moving aggressively to a single-market economy, with free movement of capital and labour, a direction which was inimical to Bermuda's best interests.

"We have had good cultural and sporting relationships with Caricom countries over many years, and there are many family relationships, but it is very important that we maintain a level of goodwill with the United States, and a level of interest on their part in maintaining the close partnership that we have had for many years."

Dr. Gibbons made the point that there were going to be times when US and Bermudian interests diverged, an example being Senator Kerry's views on off-shore tax policy, and when that happened, Bermuda would need to bring to bear all of its good connections with policymakers and people of influence in the US.

"Historically, in areas like financial services, we have been at great pains to differentiate Bermuda from other offshore jurisdictions, including some in the Caribbean, because of quality of supervision and regulation, and that has served us extremely well.

"It is not my understanding that the Government intends to become a full member of Caricom. However, there were conditions and provisions to becoming an associate member, one being that Bermuda agreed with the UK Government that Bermuda would not engage in foreign relations. Mr. Scott was reminded of that by the Deputy Governor (Nick Carter) when he returned from St. Kitts."

Gibbons thought it ironic that Mr. Scott had made such an effort to develop relations with Caricom when he had ignored opportunities to practise better economic and political diplomacy in his own backyard, with the recently-departed US Consul-General Denis Coleman.

"We heard Mr. Coleman express his distress that, while he had a direct connection not only to the White House but also to the State Department, the Bermuda Government made very little effort to even communicate with him.

"Rather than discussing easier travel for Bermudians, or corporate inversions, or the Base termination agreement, or otherwise advancing Bermuda's interests, Mr. Scott was at Caricom agreeing with a policy which may be detrimental to Bermuda's interests.

"My sense is that our relationship with the United States, certainly in terms of Washington lawmakers and influential people, is at an all-time low. You need to make your friends before you need them. We need to be most concerned with getting to the stage where the United States just doesn't about Bermuda any more.

"We depend on them for our very livelihood. If we continue to indulge in these snubs and slights, and involve Bermuda in issues where they will be concerned or annoyed, we could soon become very unimportant to them.

Dr. Gibbons had seen no clear evidence that the Government was taking a deliberate, ideological "turn to the south", towards Cuba and the Caribbean, but observed that careful diplomacy took a lot of work.

"With Washington and other capitals, there's a lot of patience and persistence involved, and people sometimes have to subordinate feelings of power and position, to influence and advance relationships.

"I'm not sure the PLP Government is very good at that, and it has been a lot easier for them to turn in a southerly direction, which is not going to have the same kind of benefit for the people of this country as maintaining a healthy relationship with Washington, London and Brussels."

IVEN Bermuda's ties with Caricom, and the Bush administration's anger at Caricom's and Premier Scott's position on Haiti, it may be useful to look at the current economic circumstances of the four Caricom countries who were penalised by the US after establishing ties with Cuba.

According to the World Bank, the source of all of the following information, Guyana "is a lower-middle-income country with a population of about 770,000". Despite being "well endowed with natural resources including bauxite and gold, large tropical forests and fertile agricultural lands", the GDP per capita was US$840 in 2002.

The present value of the country's debt was $882 million, whereas GDP was estimated at $710 million. Using three of the World Bank's five indicators of technological and infrastructural development, there were 26 personal computers per 1,000 people, 95,000 Internet users, and seven per cent of the roads were paved.

In January 2004, a press release reported that "the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) have agreed that Guyana has taken the steps necessary to reach the completion point under the enhanced framework of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.

"Debt relief under the enhanced HIPC initiative from all of Guyana's creditors amounts to $334 million. Debt relief lowers Guyana's debt to revenue ratio to about 213 per cent in 2003. However, in the long run, the ratio is expected to decline considerably, to about 150 per cent in 2022."

Jamaica is "an island economy of 2.6 million people, has a bi-cameral government, and has enjoyed a relatively stable democracy since Independence in 1962". The mainstays of the economy are agricultural exports, including sugar and bananas, bauxite mining, and tourism. The GDP per capita is $2,820. In 2002, the present value of Jamaica's debt was $5.4 billion, compared to GDP of $8.0 billion. There were 50 personal computers per 1,000 people, 100,000 Internet users, and 70 per cent of the roads were paved.

According to a January 2004 World Bank press release, "The New Bank Report, Jamaica: The Road to Sustained Growth," argues that to restore self-sustaining and job-creating growth, Jamaica needs to improve its international competitiveness and productivity, while also tackling urgent short-term economic and social needs.

"Among the most pressing challenges is the country's debt, which has reached 150 per cent of GDP, and has meant that interest payments are as high as 16 per cent of GDP. The report recommends that tackling this debt burden and achieving a sustainable fiscal situation be a top priority of government.

"In addition to the country's debt burden, rampant crime is also taking a toll on the country's economy. According to the report, crime is costing Jamaica at least four per cent of its GDP, including lost production, health expenses, and public and private spending on security. Poor employment prospects and a high crime rate have encouraged high rates of emigration, with the equivalent of some 80 per cent of tertiary graduates in the 1990s estimated to have migrated."

The report suggests that even when the country was experiencing modest growth in the 1990s, it was unable to create enough jobs because of a decline in the country's competitiveness, and, as a result, employment rose less than 0.3 per cent per year from 1991-2001.

Trinidad and Tobago is "a twin-island open economy, with a population of about 1.3 million people. The population is ethnically diverse. Historically, the country is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas production."

By the standards of Guyana and Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago is hardly of passing concern to the World Bank. GDP per capita was $6,490 in 2002. The present value of debt was $3.0 billion, and GDP was $9.4 billion. There were 69 personal computers per 1,000 people, 120,000 Internet users, and 50 per cent of the roads were paved.

Barbados is economically healthier still. In 2001 GDP per capita was $9,750, and the present value of debt was $739 million, compared to GDP of $2.8 billion. There were 92 personal computers per 1,000 people, but only 15,000 Internet users in a population of about 270,000. The tourism industry suffered with the rest of the Caribbean after 9/11, but is expected to improve this season.

Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, one of the Caricom leaders who did not respond to the US State department "demand" for recognition of the new Haitian regime, leads a population of 117,000 people with GDP per capita, in 2002, of $2,820, a number coincidentally identical to Jamaica's.

The present value of debt is $156 million, compared to GDP of $360 million. There were 116 personal computers per 1,000 people in 2001, 2,000 Internet users in 1998, and 30 per cent of the roads were paved.

The World Bank is run like a co-operative, with its member countries as shareholders. The number of shares allotted to a country is based roughly on the size of its economy. The US is the largest shareholder, with 16.41 per cent of the votes, followed by Japan (7.87%), Germany (4.49%), United Kingdom (4.31%), and France (4.31%). The rest of the shares are divided among the other 179 members. The Bank's president is, by tradition, a national of the largest shareholder, the United States.

Bermuda's GDP per capita is estimated at around $60,000, and the latest US estimate is $37,600 per capita.