The recent ?tsunami scare? has caused equal amounts of amusement and concern around the Island. Clearly there was a major breakdown in the command and control of the Police Service in particular which needs to be examined carefully. The findings should be made public and for steps to be taken in future that a panicked and ill-informed decision of this kind is not made in the future.

The fact that basic questions were not asked of either Harbour Radio or the Bermuda Weather Service was the worst example of poor decision making. The jamming of the Island?s cellular phone networks was the next problem; once it was clear that a tsunami was not coming, it was exceptionally difficult to inform people of that fact.

It is unlikely that Bermuda would be hit by a tidal wave, except in the worst kind of case. The reef line would probably break one up before it struck the Island. Nonetheless, Bermuda does face a slower but equally dangerous threat from climate change. Now all governments, except the Bush Administration in the US, and virtually all scientists agree that global warming is a reality.

While there is still disagreement over its severity and the degree to which reduction of emissions and so forth will reduce its effects, there is unanimity on the basic issue ? the world is getting warmer. For Bermuda, the effects would be varied. There may even be some benefits ? a longer summer would presumably be good for tourism.

And certainly, weather-related effects on hurricanes and so on make the Island?s other economic driver, insurance, even more important to the world economy. But that may hide some other problems. If rainfall levels fell, that would cause even greater pressure on the Island?s already strained water resources and increase the demand for use of reverse osmosis plants and the like.

Bermuda needs to emphasise the need for conservation even more heavily than it does now. Bermuda is not an industrial society, and as such it not a heavy emitter of carbons and other pollutants. Still, more can be done to reduce car emissions, notably by encouraging the use of electric cars. Similarly, a general reduction on dependence on fossil fuels through the use of solar energy and harnessing currents (as Belco already proposes to do) would benefit the Island and the globe.

The greatest threat concerns rising sea levels. Even small increases in sea levels would have an effect on low-lying area of land, particularly in periods of extreme weather when increases in tidal levels can be expected.

There is now also strong evidence to link the severity and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes with global warming, and this may pose the greatest threat to Bermuda. Even though the 2006 hurricane season was relatively benign, the long term trend of serious tropical weather is very real. This has great ramifications for the US and the Caribbean region, which presents a much larger target than Bermuda, but the risk of Bermuda being hit by a slow-moving Category Four or Five storm remains very real.

In general terms, the Island is well prepared for a hurricane, and the greatest danger to the Island may be complacency. Bermuda needs to acknowledge the likelihood that it will be hit by more and stronger hurricanes in the years to come and to ensure that it is prepared for it.