It is very clear now that the United Bermuda Party plans to make crime a major issue in this General Election.

That's not surprising because it is an issue on which the Progressive Labour Party has some historic weaknesses and one where the record of the past five years is patchy, in spite of some successes.

But there are some differences in the parties' policies, and for that reason alone, it is good that it is being raised as a matter for the Election.

The facts are that 1999 was a very bad year for crime, and the Government came under heavy pressure to increase the number of officers on the under-establishment force.

This happened through 2000 and 2001, and not coincidentally, the overall crime rate declined in those years.

The Government has pointed out that the violent crime rate has declined steadily in the last five years. In 1998, there were 296 violent crimes and in 1999 that figure jumped to 336. It then fell to 295 in 2000, 265 in 2001 and 236 in 2002, the lowest rate in a very long time.

That is very good news, and it is also worth noting that the detection rate for serious incidents has been good ever since former Commissioner Colin Coxall came and formalised a heavier and quicker response to serious crimes such as murders and armed robberies.

With certain exceptions (most notably the recent fatal shooting of Shaundae Jones in Dockyard), suspects have been quickly arrested and charged.

That's the good news. The bad news is that the overall crime rate, which includes offences such as stealing, burglaries and car and bike thefts generally jumped in 1999, dropped in 2000 and have been rising again ever since.

A total of 3,095 crimes were committed in 2002, which was the highest rate since 1999 and 100 more than in 1998. However this was mainly due to the rise in vehicle removals, which were 200 higher than in 1998.

So why does the UBP see crime as a key issue in this election?

The answer is three-fold. The first is that the Police may be making arrests, but the violent crimes that are occurring seem to be more severe than in the past. That creates a public perception that Bermuda is a more dangerous place than it used to be, coupled with the sense that the Police are not around when crime occurs.

Secondly, even when arrests are being made, the Director of Public Prosecutions has failed to gain convictions in some of the highest profile cases, reducing confidence in the criminal justice system.

So the UBP is calling for a better defined and wider community policing system, in which law-abiding people actually see Police on the beat deterring and stopping crime. It is debatable whether this is the most efficient system of policing. But it does wonders for public confidence, as does a quick response to calls, even if nothing much can be done. That does not always happen now and the major problem for the Police, and by extension, the Government, is that there are far too few Policemen on patrol. That's a fact and until it is fixed, confidence will keep declining.

How much of this can be blamed on the PLP will no doubt be a subject for much debate in the next month.

Its failure to bring the Police up to strength in the early part of its term will haunt it. It has to counter the traditional accusation that it is soft on crime, and the departure of Dame Lois Browne Evans may help it here. So will fading memories of the relentless attacks that the PLP made on Mr. Coxall.

It also has to make the harder case that the Alternatives to Incarceration scheme, which is still a work in progress, will not only reform prisoners but it will lower crime rates as well.