Another day, another tropical storm warning.

This week, Bermudians were warned that Tropical Storm Irene was a potential threat to Bermuda, although it now seems likely she will swing west and could ultimately threaten the US East Coast as a category one hurricane.

While Bermudians no doubt breathed a sigh of relief at the news, it is worrying that there have already been nine named storms since the hurricane season began on June 1, with the peak of the season still ahead.

Last week, the National Hurricane Centre in Miami warned that it expected 21 named storms this year, up from an earlier estimate of around 13 or 14. Colorado State University Professor William Gray, who has conducted his own hurricane prediction studies since 1984, agreed with the Miami revision, raising his own estimate to 20 named storms, of which ten would be hurricanes, including six major hurricanes.

What does that mean? Well, sometime in October, there could be a Hurricane Tammy or Hurricane Vince bearing down on Bermuda.

Scientists are not entirely in agreement on what is causing this upsurge in storms or on how long it will last. Part of the problem stems from that the fact that there is little historical data on either sea surface temperature or on the frequency of storms.

There is agreement that rising sea temperatures, along with the lack of an El Nino effect and a lack of low fronts coming off the East Coast, are contributing to the increase, there is no agreement on whether this is being caused by global warming or if it is part of a cyclical change in the world's weather.

Dr. Tony Knap of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, also notes that improvements in technology may be making an admittedly difficult situation worse, because satellites and other hi-tech devices can locate storms where they would not necessarily have noticed before.

Regardless of the scientific arguments, it is inarguable that Bermuda has to be prepared for the worst and cannot count on direct hits averaging one every 20 years or so.

More storms inevitably increase the risk to Bermuda, even though it is a small target. And it will only take one storm to cause massive damage if it is a category four or category five storm.

In some ways, Bermuda is better prepared for the storm than ever before, A good deal of remediation to the foreshore has been done because of Hurricane Fabian, and the frequent warnings this year ? along with the Belco blackout ? mean residents should have trees cleared and emergency equipment in hand.

More broadly, Bermuda's economy is somewhat dependent on the hurricane seasons as well. Many Bermuda-based reinsurers specialise in catastrophes and an increase in frequency and intensity will cost them money. To be sure, insurance exists because there is risk, but you can have too much of a "good thing".

Bermuda has also demonstrated admirable support to Caribbean nations damaged by hurricanes and it would be worth looking at doing more work on the development of a regional relief force in which the Bermuda Regiment, emergency services and Belco and the local telephone companies would have a role.

Premier Alex Scott's ideas for a regional insurance pool is also worth looking at. Certainly Bermuda has the expertise to see if it is viable.

Hurricanes mean preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Bermuda now needs to consider what preparations are needed in the event that there is a long term increase in hurricanes.